Just curious on anyone's thoughts for this winter. For the past week we have had migrating Geese fly over. We live next to a bird sanctuary on one of the major migratory paths. In the ten years we've been here this is the earliest I have ever heard them. I also noticed that leaves are already starting to change colors on certain trees, again, earliest I've seen in years. So are we in for a cold, nasty winter?

Huntington Wrote:
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> Just curious on anyone's thoughts for this winter.
> For the past week we have had migrating Geese fly
> over. We live next to a bird sanctuary on one of
> the major migratory paths. In the ten years we've
> been here this is the earliest I have ever heard
> them. I also noticed that leaves are already
> starting to change colors on certain trees, again,
> earliest I've seen in years. So are we in for a
> cold, nasty winter?

It's too early to make firm guesses (and do note that these are more like guesses than anything else - seasonal forecasts are still not perfect science).

We'll have a better idea in mid-to-late October.

That said, there are indications that the first half of the winter may be rather mild as it appears we may move into a warm pattern for much of mid to late Autumn.

The NAO has been rather positive and should remain so for the forseeable future. But the PNA is also running positive. The wildcard is the AO and PNA if we get a strong +NAO most of the winter.

Right now we're thinking a +NAO/+PNA. Which means there won't be blocking but should be periodic cold air.

ENSO is also looking neutral which knocks out a clear signalling mechanism.

Short answer: Near normal is the best guess right now.

Huntington Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just curious on anyone's thoughts for this winter.
> For the past week we have had migrating Geese fly
> over. We live next to a bird sanctuary on one of
> the major migratory paths. In the ten years we've
> been here this is the earliest I have ever heard
> them. I also noticed that leaves are already
> starting to change colors on certain trees, again,
> earliest I've seen in years. So are we in for a
> cold, nasty winter?

It's going to be a colder-than-average winter, it's going to start early, and there's going to be snow, probably at least four storms with accumulations of 4"-8" each time.

I don't know if we're going to get a big snow of 12"-18", but it's very possible.

I'm scared because of the cool summer. I hate the idea of hypothermia.

Weather Lad. Wrote:
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> It's going to be a colder-than-average winter,
> it's going to start early, and there's going to be
> snow, probably at least four storms with
> accumulations of 4"-8" each time.
>
> I don't know if we're going to get a big snow of
> 12"-18", but it's very possible.



That's my guess also, we are due.

This winter is going to be as cold as a witch's tit in a brass bra face down in a Montana snowdrift.

Remember when we were supposed to get those huge snowstorms last winter? We're getting them this winter.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/WashingtonPost/Content/Blogs/capital-weather-gang/201208/images/Winter2012-13Graphic.jpg?uuid=PZbtKOb2EeGTargB8aurGQ

Bread-o-meter Wrote:
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> Weather Lad. Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > It's going to be a colder-than-average winter,
> > it's going to start early, and there's going to
> be
> > snow, probably at least four storms with
> > accumulations of 4"-8" each time.
> >
> > I don't know if we're going to get a big snow
> of
> > 12"-18", but it's very possible.
>
>
>
> That's my guess also, we are due.

Statistically we are not due. Not after the 2009-11 period.

It was cold here until May.
Then we got warm (not hot) during June, July & August.
Now it is starting to get cold again.
Winter sucks.

Huntington Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just curious on anyone's thoughts for this winter.
> For the past week we have had migrating Geese fly
> over. We live next to a bird sanctuary on one of
> the major migratory paths. In the ten years we've
> been here this is the earliest I have ever heard
> them. I also noticed that leaves are already
> starting to change colors on certain trees, again,
> earliest I've seen in years. So are we in for a
> cold, nasty winter?

I agree.

Even though I bought it last Winter, I predict barely any snow this year because of it but it will probably be very cold.

I just hope my car doesn't have any trouble :(

I'll be keeping my brass monkey inside

I've got a generator and a propane heater and camping stove and plenty of food if the power goes out and a gas snowblower and new skis. Bring it on!

I cant wait for winter so i can dress cute....boots scarfs hats etc