Well the jobs report is out and once again jobs are being created in the month. 114,000 new jobs in September.

That 5.2 million new jobs since Obama took office.

A hell of lot better then LOSING 800,000 A MONTH UNDER BUSH.

There are fewer people working now than when Obama took office. It is a fact confirmed by multiple sources.

Fewer people working. That doesn't necessarily mean anything. Peopel are in debt and going through difficult times. I'm willing to bet a decent percentage of those out of work, could be working SOMEWHERE if they really wanted to. It may not pay the dollar amount they want. A pay check, is better than NOA paycheck.

facts are tricky for you Wrote:
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> There are fewer people working now than when Obama
> took office. It is a fact confirmed by multiple
> sources.

That's incorrect now. As of last month more people are working now then when Obama took office.

Ahmayzin Wrote:
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> Fewer people working. That doesn't necessarily
> mean anything.

Actually, it does. It means there are less people earning an income and participating in the economy. It means quite a bit.

Try again, they were already caught cheating on the numbers. First those no longer collecting unemployment because it ran out are not counted yet they are unemployed. Second if someone quits their job and someone else is hired to fill it they count that as a new job created, hardly true.

Factico Wrote:
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> facts are tricky for you Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > There are fewer people working now than when
> Obama
> > took office. It is a fact confirmed by
> multiple
> > sources.
>
> That's incorrect now. As of last month more
> people are working now then when Obama took
> office.

Nope.

Even CNN will dispute that notion.


http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/05/politics/fact-check-obama-jobs/index.html

America has now added 200,000 net new jobs the past two months and lost 700,000 Americans from the roles of job seekers.

Read it and weep...

http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/27/news/economy/obama-job-creation/index.html

WOWBama Nation Wrote:
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> Read it and weep...
>
> http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/27/news/economy/obama
> -job-creation/index.html


Interesting how they magically found a whopping 400,000 jobs that they couldn't find before. The timing is incredible too.

The net new jobs under Obama then Bush so far 386,000.

WOWBama Nation Wrote:
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> The net new jobs under Obama then Bush so far
> 386,000.


Those magically found last week even though they were allegedly there last year. It truly is AMAZING!

Its CNN consider the source. The real Wall Street is not impressed.

Gold at $1,800 an ounce. That is the true tell on the economy.

If the unemployment rate actually dropped from 8.1% to 7.8 like the BLS quantified it would require a GDP growth rate of over 4%. What a sham. And everybody knows it.Even Obama.

bad math Wrote:
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> Try again, they were already caught cheating on
> the numbers. First those no longer collecting
> unemployment because it ran out are not counted
> yet they are unemployed. Second if someone quits
> their job and someone else is hired to fill it
> they count that as a new job created, hardly true.

Unemployment insurance runs for six months (most of the time). By their definition, the discouraged can drop out in the current survey if they don't look in the past four weeks. If they reactivate their job search, they reappear as employed or unemploed.

The labor force grew, not shrank. Those dropped out in the labor force decreased.

http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

I think the aberration this month is due to election campain hiring of part-time workers to service the politicians at the conventions and on the campaign trail.

Thomas Sowell Wrote:
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> If the unemployment rate actually dropped from
> 8.1% to 7.8 like the BLS quantified it would
> require a GDP growth rate of over 4%. What a sham.
> And everybody knows it.Even Obama.

They only use the birth-death model in the establishment survey. It provides an estimate of small business job growth driven off of GDP. The unemployment rate comes from the phone survey of 40,000 households. There are suspicions about the validity of the phone survey, but that's a different question.

Lester Wrote:
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> I think the aberration this month is due to
> election campain hiring of part-time workers to
> service the politicians at the conventions and on
> the campaign trail.

I have another theory: Its something called Christmas.

There's also teachers,teachers aides, and day care workers. Notice the big 744K increase in female workers in the unadjusted figures. The seasonal adjustments appear to be off again.

The numbers should usually go down in October because Summer jobs are over and you have students going back to college.

Reagan 4 US Wrote:
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> The numbers should usually go down in October
> because Summer jobs are over and you have students
> going back to college.

This is not the case. Jobs pick up for the Christmas shopping season in October.

Retail does 40% of its business for the entire year in the 8 weeks before Christmas.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/05/2012 02:08PM by Ito.

The numbers represent full time jobs. Christmas are considered seasonal jobs and not counted.

James Wrote:
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> The numbers represent full time jobs. Christmas
> are considered seasonal jobs and not counted.

Yep. You're right. I stand corrected -- as does the post about summer jobs as well.

Ito Wrote:
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> James Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > The numbers represent full time jobs.
> Christmas
> > are considered seasonal jobs and not counted.
>
> Yep. You're right. I stand corrected -- as does
> the post about summer jobs as well.

Not to split hairs but there is difference between fulltime and part time vs temperary and permanent. Someone can work full time during the holidays on a temperary basis.

bad math Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Try again, they were already caught cheating on
> the numbers. First those no longer collecting
> unemployment because it ran out are not counted
> yet they are unemployed. Second if someone quits
> their job and someone else is hired to fill it
> they count that as a new job created, hardly

Please back your accusation with a source. Your statement is invalid without a source.

Yeah I definitely learned more than I wanted to know about the methodology just now on the BLS web site. The survey they do is ask whether the person has just gotten a full or part-time job and then they adjust the results based on years of statistical averages for the season.

Part of the problem, as we saw in a jobs report not too long ago, is whether the current increase is a permanent increase or just part of the seasonal pattern.

Its one of the reasons why you have to take these statistics with a grain of salt when they are released -- unless there is a serious jump one way or another.

The general trend is upward which is good. Whether the rate increase is anemic or just average is in the eye of the beholder or the political argument you are trying to make.

The problem with the whole jobs argument is that job growth is one of the last things to happen in a recovery. It always has been. After the 2001 recession, real job growth didn't happen until 2004 -- and that was just a "regular" recession.

WOWBama Nation Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Read it and weep...
>
> http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/27/news/economy/obama
> -job-creation/index.html



OK dummies and partisan knuckleheads, here's the real deal as far as this talking point goes.

Obama took office at near the lows of the crash. The +4 million jobs added is measured from that low point which, while serving political purposes, is rather arbitrary in the overall scheme of things.

So, if you look at CNN's and similar graphs that attempt to make the numbers look better, you'll see that the numbers appear to have improved:




However, as above, that's misleading when viewed in the context of the overall employment situation over time. We're still down some ~4.5 million jobs from where we should be as shown below:




In addition, if you factor in necessary growth just to keep up with population/workforce growth, the picture becomes even worse:




Bottom line: We've crawled back to about the break-even point from where we were when Obama took office. We're still down about 4.5 million jobs or about 1/2 of where we should be (i.e., we've recovered 4.5 million we should be at 9 million).

There's always a lag. Under Bush, unemployment didn't bottom till early 2003, well after the recession was declared over. The depths of the recession in 2007/2009 hit on the cusp of Q1/Q2 2009 while unemployment bottomed in Q4 2009.

Lester Wrote:
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> There's always a lag. Under Bush, unemployment
> didn't bottom till early 2003, well after the
> recession was declared over. The depths of the
> recession in 2007/2009 hit on the cusp of Q1/Q2
> 2009 while unemployment bottomed in Q4 2009.



True, but this is the worst ever by a large measure. Not that it's necessarily Obama's fault, but it is what it is for whatever reasons you want to assign.

Thomas Sowell Wrote:
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> If the unemployment rate actually dropped from
> 8.1% to 7.8 like the BLS quantified it would
> require a GDP growth rate of over 4%. What a sham.
> And everybody knows it.Even Obama.


It was fake! And then two years later it kept falling to 4.9%