For those who are interested in such data, here are the enrollment changes for the 25 county high schools (September 2008 vs. September 2007):

Increasing Enrollments:

South Lakes +190
Hayfield +175
Annandale +172
Fairfax +97
West Potomac +89
Falls Church +69
Stuart +68
West Springfield +64
Marshall +59
Mount Vernon +55
South County +31
Langley +13
Jefferson +10
Madison +9
Lake Braddock +5
Edison +5

Declining Enrollments

Westfield -236
Lee -81
Chantilly -61
Centreville -32
Robinson -25
Woodson -19
Oakton -12
Herndon -10
McLean -8

Some of the changes (increases at South Lakes and Hayfield and decreases at Westfield and Chantilly) are the result of past redistricting decisions. If these trends are projected to continue, likely candidates for potential redistricting would seem to involve Annandale and its neighboring schools (Falls Church and Stuart) and Lee and its neighboring schools (in particular, West Springfield). I seem to recall that discussions of potential Lee/West Springfield redistrictings have been somewhat emotional in the past, so I could well imagine that the School Board would try to push any such recommendation down to a Task Force.

In the past, I have thought Marshall, with its small enrollment, also was a likely candidate for redistricting, but this now seems less likely, with its enrollment increasing without any School Board involvement and the numbers at its neighboring schools (including Madison and McLean) relatively stable.

Stats Man Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Increasing Enrollments:
>
> South Lakes +190

>
> Declining Enrollments
>
> Westfield -236

>
> Some of the changes (increases at South Lakes and
> Hayfield and decreases at Westfield and Chantilly)
> are the result of past redistricting decisions.

Stats Man -

The total number of kids in the Floris redistricted area is about 69. The decline was 236. Redistricting doesn't come near explaining the total decline. During last year's redistricting, Staff's own numbers projected a large natural decline at Westfield. The only thing they got wrong was how large the decline is. We told them, based on their own numbers, that there was absolutely no need to move the Floris kids. There will be about 600 empty seats at Westfield - the entire addition - by 2012 or so.

In addition, the total increase at South Lakes is also larger than the total attending from Fox Mill and Floris. We also told them that their numbers were low for South Lakes, that, given how lousy their projections are, they shouldn't move so many kids to South Lakes, but they refused to listen to that either. Couple years out, there will be trailers at South Lakes.

Morons.

WestfieldDad Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Stats Man -
>
> The total number of kids in the Floris
> redistricted area is about 69. The decline was
> 236. Redistricting doesn't come near explaining
> the total decline. During last year's
> redistricting, Staff's own numbers projected a
> large natural decline at Westfield. The only
> thing they got wrong was how large the decline is.
> We told them, based on their own numbers, that
> there was absolutely no need to move the Floris
> kids. There will be about 600 empty seats at
> Westfield - the entire addition - by 2012 or so.
>
> In addition, the total increase at South Lakes is
> also larger than the total attending from Fox Mill
> and Floris. We also told them that their numbers
> were low for South Lakes, that, given how lousy
> their projections are, they shouldn't move so many
> kids to South Lakes, but they refused to listen to
> that either. Couple years out, there will be
> trailers at South Lakes.
>
> Morons.

Westfield Dad - This is very interesting. I did not mean to imply that all the growth at South Lakes and Hayfield and/or the decline in student enrollments at Westfield and Chantilly was due to redistrictings, but only that a portion of the changes presumably could be attributed to them. Obviously, there were many other schools that were not redistricted last year, but nevertheless had significant changes in enrollment.

Personally, I have never had enormous confidence in the accuracy of either the Staff's capacity estimates or enrollment projections. It does lead one to question whether the numbers drive the policies, or the policies drive the numbers.

Either way, if I were interested in what redistrictings might occur in the future, I would pay a fair amount of attention to (1) the Annandale, Stuart and Falls Church boundaries and (2) the West Springfield and Lee boundaries.

WestfieldDad Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> > The total number of kids in the Floris redistricted area is about 69.< <

Oakton is down only 12. Is that all SL got from Fox Mill? Wow. There had to be a boatload of pupil placements from Fox Mill back to Oakton.

> > In addition, the total increase at South Lakes is also larger than the total attending from Fox Mill and Floris. We also told them that their numbers were low for South Lakes, that, given how lousy their projections are, they shouldn't move so many kids to South Lakes, but they refused to listen to that either. Couple years out, there will be trailers at South Lakes.

Morons.< <

With the real estate melt down, it may take longer, but you are right there will be trailers back @ SL before 2015.

All that was need was Aldrin and a portion of Armstrong.

Thomas More Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> WestfieldDad Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > > The total number of kids in the Floris
> redistricted area is about 69.< <
>
> Oakton is down only 12. Is that all SL got from
> Fox Mill? Wow. There had to be a boatload of pupil
> placements from Fox Mill back to Oakton.
>

Thomas - I do not know how many students from Fox Mill ended up at South Lakes, but the transfer of Fox Mill students from Oakton to South Lakes was offset by the transfer of Navy students from Chantilly to Oakton. This presumably explains, at least in part, why the Chantilly numbers declined more than the Oakton numbers.

Stats Man Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> For those who are interested in such data, here
> are the enrollment changes for the 25 county high
> schools (September 2008 vs. September 2007):
>
> Increasing Enrollments:
>
> South Lakes +190
> Hayfield +175
> Annandale +172
> Fairfax +97
> West Potomac +89
> Falls Church +69
> Stuart +68
> West Springfield +64
> Marshall +59
> Mount Vernon +55
> South County +31
> Langley +13
> Jefferson +10
> Madison +9
> Lake Braddock +5
> Edison +5
>
> Declining Enrollments
>
> Westfield -236
> Lee -81
> Chantilly -61
> Centreville -32
> Robinson -25
> Woodson -19
> Oakton -12
> Herndon -10
> McLean -8
>
> Some of the changes (increases at South Lakes and
> Hayfield and decreases at Westfield and Chantilly)
> are the result of past redistricting decisions.
> If these trends are projected to continue, likely
> candidates for potential redistricting would seem
> to involve Annandale and its neighboring schools
> (Falls Church and Stuart) and Lee and its
> neighboring schools (in particular, West
> Springfield). I seem to recall that discussions
> of potential Lee/West Springfield redistrictings
> have been somewhat emotional in the past, so I
> could well imagine that the School Board would try
> to push any such recommendation down to a Task
> Force.
>
> In the past, I have thought Marshall, with its
> small enrollment, also was a likely candidate for
> redistricting, but this now seems less likely,
> with its enrollment increasing without any School
> Board involvement and the numbers at its
> neighboring schools (including Madison and McLean)
> relatively stable.

INteresting. With the exception of Herndon, it appears that schools with large hispanic populations are increasing, with illegal students leaving Price William county, it's not surprising.

Your SB has chosen to spend $130 million now for their TAJ MAHAL, Gatehouse II and $300 million over 30 years.

This is your FCPS SB:

Ilryong Moon, At Large; Kathy Smith, Vice Chairman and Sully District; Elizabeth Bradsher, Springfield District; Tessie Wilson, Braddock District; Jane Strauss, Dranesville District. Stuart Gibson, Hunter Mill District; Kaye Kory, Mason District; Dan Storck, Chairman and Mount Vernon District; Brad Center, Lee District; James L. Raney, At Large; Martina Hone, At Large; Phillip Niedzielski-Eichner, Providence District.

They would rather have this TAJ MAHAL over the following:

TEACHERS

NEW SCHOOLS

ACADEMIC PROGRAMS

CUSTODIANS

BUS DRIVERS

SCHOOL REPAIRS

SPORT PROGRAMS

The health spa at the TAJ MAHAL is more important to them then the list above and FCPS STUDENTS.

Popularion increasing w/illegals Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> INteresting. With the exception of Herndon, it
> appears that schools with large hispanic
> populations are increasing, with illegal students
> leaving Price William county, it's not surprising.

To explore your hypothesis, I've indicated below how much of the increase in student populations at the high schools whose enrollments have increased in the past year can be attributed to a growth in Hispanics. For example, Annandale's Hispanic enrollment increased by 117 students and its total enrollment increased by 172 students; Marshall's Hispanic enrollment increased by 11 students and its total enrollment increased by 59 students; and Langley's Hispanic enrollment declined by 7 students while its total enrollment increased by 13.

> > Increasing Enrollments:
> >
> > South Lakes +190 (+39)
> > Hayfield +175 (+36)
> > Annandale +172 (+117)
> > Fairfax +97 (+35)
> > West Potomac +89 (+48)
> > Falls Church +69 (+40)
> > Stuart +68 (+75)
> > West Springfield +64 (+9)
> > Marshall +59 (+11)
> > Mount Vernon +55 (+45)
> > South County +31 (+2)
> > Langley +13 (-7)
> > Jefferson +10 (+4)
> > Madison +9 (+9)
> > Lake Braddock +5 (+13)
> > Edison +5 (+17)
> >

Stats Man Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Popularion increasing w/illegals Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > INteresting. With the exception of Herndon, it
> > appears that schools with large hispanic
> > populations are increasing, with illegal
> students
> > leaving Price William county, it's not
> surprising.
>
> To explore your hypothesis, I've indicated below
> how much of the increase in student populations at
> the high schools whose enrollments have increased
> in the past year can be attributed to a growth in
> Hispanics. For example, Annandale's Hispanic
> enrollment increased by 117 students and its total
> enrollment increased by 172 students; Marshall's
> Hispanic enrollment increased by 11 students and
> its total enrollment increased by 59 students; and
> Langley's Hispanic enrollment declined by 7
> students while its total enrollment increased by
> 13.
>
> > > Increasing Enrollments:
> > >
> > > South Lakes +190 (+39)
> > > Hayfield +175 (+36)
> > > Annandale +172 (+117)
> > > Fairfax +97 (+35)
> > > West Potomac +89 (+48)
> > > Falls Church +69 (+40)
> > > Stuart +68 (+75)
> > > West Springfield +64 (+9)
> > > Marshall +59 (+11)
> > > Mount Vernon +55 (+45)
> > > South County +31 (+2)
> > > Langley +13 (-7)
> > > Jefferson +10 (+4)
> > > Madison +9 (+9)
> > > Lake Braddock +5 (+13)
> > > Edison +5 (+17)
> > >

Also, for the county's high schools as a whole, almost all of the increase in student enrollment in 2008 (654 students more in September 2008 than in September 2007) is due to an increase in the Hispanic enrollment (623 students). The county does not report which students, Hispanic or otherwise, are living in the country illegally.

Stats Man Wrote:

>
> Also, for the county's high schools as a whole,
> almost all of the increase in student enrollment
> in 2008 (654 students more in September 2008 than
> in September 2007) is due to an increase in the
> Hispanic enrollment (623 students). The county
> does not report which students, Hispanic or
> otherwise, are living in the country illegally.

if you go with national numbers it will be about 50% illegal

so the SB is launching a countywide RD so that our kids can all make room for more illegals - great

now I understand why I pay taxes

>Declining Enrollments
>Westfield -236

Westfields Heroin High should check abandoned buildings/shooting galleries for their missing kids.

The South Lakes RD was always about social engineering and not to populate the school per se but to 1) populate the IB program and 2) dilute the FRM and ESOL population. No one believed the SB's BS about Westfield/Chantilly overcrowding because they were NOT overcrowded (and no one has forgotten the millions of dollars it cost to expand both schools to accomodate the 2007-2008 population crest).

So what will South Lakes PTSA and the SB do next when SL fills to capacity with a natural in-migration of students that are not likely to participate in IB program?

Look! US News and World Reports is out with its "Best Schools" issue. Oakton High is a "Silver"

http://www.usnews.com/listings/high-schools/virginia/oakton_high


South Lakes isn't even listed!

Let the flaming begin!

Neither is WEstfield

WashingTone Locian Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Look! US News and World Reports is out with its
> "Best Schools" issue. Oakton High is a "Silver"
>
> http://www.usnews.com/listings/high-schools/virgin
> ia/oakton_high
>
>
> South Lakes isn't even listed!
>
> Let the flaming begin!

No flames here - just statistics:

Gold:

TJHSST (#1 public high school in the country!)

McLean (#55)

Langley (#76)

Woodson (#90)

Silver:

Chantilly

Lake Braddock

Madison

Marshall

Oakton

Robinson

Stuart

In total, 11 of the county's 25 high schools were recognized.

Stat Man Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> WashingTone Locian Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Look! US News and World Reports is out with its
> > "Best Schools" issue. Oakton High is a "Silver"
>
> >
> >
> http://www.usnews.com/listings/high-schools/virgin
>
> > ia/oakton_high
> >
> >
> > South Lakes isn't even listed!
> >
> > Let the flaming begin!
>
> No flames here - just statistics:
>
> Gold:
>
> TJHSST (#1 public high school in the country!)
>
> McLean (#55)
>
> Langley (#76)
>
> Woodson (#90)
>
> Silver:
>
> Chantilly
>
> Lake Braddock
>
> Madison
>
> Marshall
>
> Oakton
>
> Robinson
>
> Stuart
>
> In total, 11 of the county's 25 high schools were
> recognized.

I wonder if Woodson would be on that list if the parents hadn't fought so hard to ditch IB and keep their AP program?

When is it a decline or increase in enrollment versus just a yearly population fluctuation? I would say 1-2% of enrollment. If that is the case many of the schools, on both lists, fall pretty close to that number.

definition of decline/increase Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> When is it a decline or increase in enrollment
> versus just a yearly population fluctuation? I
> would say 1-2% of enrollment. If that is the case
> many of the schools, on both lists, fall pretty
> close to that number.

The numbers speak for themselves, but there are, of course, year-to-year increases or decreases that are not very significant. In addition, as Westfield Dad pointed out in a prior post, any redistricting decision should be based on well-based projections of future enrollments rather than current or historical enrollments.

In theory, the School Board's model for projecting enrollments at the high school level should take into account the current and expected number of students at the various feeder schools, residential building patterns, and broader demographic measures. I will leave it to Westfield Dad and others to address whether, when the School Board wants to, say increase enrollment at a school such as South Lakes, it instructs its staff to develop a methodology that underestimates the projected enrollment at South Lakes and overestimates the projected enrollments at schools such as Westfield and Chantilly.

From a forensic auditing perspective, however, one can look at the Board's projections and see whether in hindsight they missed the mark; if so, it is circumstantial evidence of bias which the Board should be required to rebut by explaining why their estimates were made in good faith, even if ultimately wrong.

Woodson Parent's rule! Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I wonder if Woodson would be on that list if the
> parents hadn't fought so hard to ditch IB and keep
> their AP program?

Woodson is close to Robinson (IB) and Lake Braddock (AP), both of which also are on the list, so it's likely Woodson would be highly ranked either way. The fact that Woodson parents fought hard to preserve an AP program they preferred, however, presumably sent a strong message that this was a community that cared deeply about education, attracting more families in the future with a similar commitment.

Stats Man Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Stats Man Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Popularion increasing w/illegals Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > INteresting. With the exception of Herndon,
> it
> > > appears that schools with large hispanic
> > > populations are increasing, with illegal
> > students
> > > leaving Price William county, it's not
> > surprising.
> >
> > To explore your hypothesis, I've indicated
> below
> > how much of the increase in student populations
> at
> > the high schools whose enrollments have
> increased
> > in the past year can be attributed to a growth
> in
> > Hispanics. For example, Annandale's Hispanic
> > enrollment increased by 117 students and its
> total
> > enrollment increased by 172 students;
> Marshall's
> > Hispanic enrollment increased by 11 students
> and
> > its total enrollment increased by 59 students;
> and
> > Langley's Hispanic enrollment declined by 7
> > students while its total enrollment increased
> by
> > 13.
> >
> > > > Increasing Enrollments:
> > > >
> > > > South Lakes +190 (+39)
> > > > Hayfield +175 (+36)
> > > > Annandale +172 (+117)
> > > > Fairfax +97 (+35)
> > > > West Potomac +89 (+48)
> > > > Falls Church +69 (+40)
> > > > Stuart +68 (+75)
> > > > West Springfield +64 (+9)
> > > > Marshall +59 (+11)
> > > > Mount Vernon +55 (+45)
> > > > South County +31 (+2)
> > > > Langley +13 (-7)
> > > > Jefferson +10 (+4)
> > > > Madison +9 (+9)
> > > > Lake Braddock +5 (+13)
> > > > Edison +5 (+17)
> > > >
>
> Also, for the county's high schools as a whole,
> almost all of the increase in student enrollment
> in 2008 (654 students more in September 2008 than
> in September 2007) is due to an increase in the
> Hispanic enrollment (623 students). The county
> does not report which students, Hispanic or
> otherwise, are living in the country illegally.


Stat Man-
What is your source for this data?

Statistics published by FCPS:

http://www.fcps.edu/statis.htm

Stat Man Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Statistics published by FCPS:
>
> http://www.fcps.edu/statis.htm

yup - the SB is using the influx of illegals from PWC to justify a county wide redistricting process

this is on the agenda for tomorrow's work session

so our kids get screwed again to make room for yet more illegals...

FFX where the rich are always safe and illegals get a gold plated welcome - but if you work hard and pay your taxes you're the politicians' plaything

Stat Man Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> The numbers speak for themselves, but there are,
> of course, year-to-year increases or decreases
> that are not very significant. In addition, as
> Westfield Dad pointed out in a prior post, any
> redistricting decision should be based on
> well-based projections of future enrollments
> rather than current or historical enrollments.
>
> In theory, the School Board's model for projecting
> enrollments at the high school level should take
> into account the current and expected number of
> students at the various feeder schools,
> residential building patterns, and broader
> demographic measures.

Yes the model should. However, based on discussions by the staff demographer from the Coppermine study it sounded like their model doesn't really handle residential building age. That they have a base migration rate for the various types of housing, but don't take into account age of development. If that's true, it's no wonder their numbers are lousy where ever there's been significant development in the prior 20 years or so. I can understand how their model might be sufficient for the county-wide information (where new development is noise), or in stable areas (where initial spikes have leveled out), but in the areas of the county where a significant percentage of the housing stock is fairly new, they'd completely miss the spike associated with 100% in-migration within a couple years. The essential problem is standard migration rates are about 5% or so per year in single family housing, but new development has much higher rates than that. So you get an initial population of 100% of the adults between 35 & 45. After that, standard migration takes over, but that initial peak gives you a natural aging in place (partial justification for SLPTSA's argument as to why SL's numbers have fallen off and part of the reason that the ESOL/FRM population has gone up as a % of SL's population since the migration rates are much higher for other types of housing.).

Why do I say this? In the Coppermine study, Staff has "NE Floris's" ES population going up over the next 5 years, yet nearly all of the housing has been completed in the last 20 years and the last significant building finished about 4 years ago. Due to natural aging in place, an increase is simply not going to happen. If anything, the numbers will drop 30% at least.

OHT, Staff does have a general problem, maintenance of the data that's needed at a level of granularity sufficient for ES redistricting is expensive and there's no ready source for data on kids who aren't in school/even born yet (not that they they ever will be given the development aging issue). For HSes, they ought to do better than they do since they have data for the MS/ES kids...

> I will leave it to
> Westfield Dad and others to address whether, when
> the School Board wants to, say increase enrollment
> at a school such as South Lakes, it instructs its
> staff to develop a methodology that underestimates
> the projected enrollment at South Lakes and
> overestimates the projected enrollments at schools
> such as Westfield and Chantilly.
>
A friend of mine says to never attribute to malevolence that which can be attributed to incompetence...

OTH, there were a couple things that happened during the SL redistricting that might lead one to believe there was a more than a bit of malevolence involved -

1) Tisdtat was quoted as saying that he didn't believe that adding the Fox Mill/NE Floris numbers to the SL numbers leading to totals that filled SL to the brim was a problem since he didn't believe the Fox Mill/NE Floris kids would come anyway. In other words, he was providing projections in public that he didn't believe.

2) Tisdtat also was quoted as saying he didn't believe the Westfield decline either. (If not malevolent, he apparently believes that there's something in the water in western Fairfax that will keep 50-year olds in Floris & Virginia Run procreating into their 70s...)

3) And, of course, there was the fact that the 07 CIP was used as the basis when the "Study" was launched. In the 07 CIP - the basis for the "too many kids" argument (other than 6000 showing up at the Westfield/Chantilly FB game...) - had Westfield overpopulated into the future. By the time of the public meetings in the fall, the 08 CIP was out with the new numbers showing Westfield's decline. Given the new basis, they should have reconsidered whether they were justified in continuing, or in including Westfield. Instead, they went forward and began creating ever stupider justifications for what they were really doing - changing SL's demographics.

>
> From a forensic auditing perspective, however, one
> can look at the Board's projections and see
> whether in hindsight they missed the mark; if so,
> it is circumstantial evidence of bias which the
> Board should be required to rebut by explaining
> why their estimates were made in good faith, even
> if ultimately wrong.

HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS AS THE FCPS SCHOOL BOARD AND JACK DALE PLAN TO MOVE AHEAD WITH A COUNTY WIDE REDISTRICT PLAN.

THEY WILL DIVIDE THE COUNTY INTO FOUR SECTIONS AND SET UP HAND PICKED CRONIES WHO WILL BE ON COMMITTEES THAT WILL PROPOSE WHAT SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED AND HOW TO RD THAT SECTION.

ALSO, THEY WILL NOT ASK FOR AND MORE MONEY FOR THE CIP.

WHEN WILL THIS BULL END? THEY HAVE NO IDEA ON HOW TO FIX THEIR PROBLEMS.

Stat Man Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Statistics published by FCPS:
>
> http://www.fcps.edu/statis.htm


Stat man-
Thanks. I am familiar with site but where specifically did you find number of new Hispanic children?

REDISTRICT THE COUNTY Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS AS THE FCPS SCHOOL BOARD AND
> JACK DALE PLAN TO MOVE AHEAD WITH A COUNTY WIDE
> REDISTRICT PLAN.
>
> THEY WILL DIVIDE THE COUNTY INTO FOUR SECTIONS AND
> SET UP HAND PICKED CRONIES WHO WILL BE ON
> COMMITTEES THAT WILL PROPOSE WHAT SCHOOLS WILL BE
> CLOSED AND HOW TO RD THAT SECTION.
>
> ALSO, THEY WILL NOT ASK FOR AND MORE MONEY FOR THE
> CIP.
>
> WHEN WILL THIS BULL END? THEY HAVE NO IDEA ON HOW
> TO FIX THEIR PROBLEMS.

What does your third sentence mean? What will they not ask for?

Years ago there were 3 FCPS administrative areas. No one knew why 3, or what purpose they served. Then FCPS decided that they needed MORE areas, and that they should be called cluster offices. (Cluster F--ks might be more appropriate, but I digress.) In their wisdom, they chose to have 8 of these area offices. No one knew why, or what purpose they serve. Now you are saying that they will have 4 area offices, or clusters, or whatever new name they choose. At least now these offices will have a purpose, albeit briefly. They will each draw boundary lines for the schools in their area. How nice.

Any idea of what areas will be in each new cluster/area? And why 4 as opposed to 8, or even one? Why not ONE office/group/committee to redistrict the entire county?

What fun 2009 will be! How important the school board members will feel when everyone is angry at them! But the short memories of the voters will enable all of the democrats on the board to be re-elected in 2011, or move on a higher office. They may need to fire Dale as the redistricting sacrificial lamb. That shouldn't be a problem for anyone, Dale will be ready to move on to a higher paying job by then, one that comes with a tanning bed in office, and a not only a car, but driver too.

Here's a link to the map showing the 4 planning areas overlaid on the current high school boundaries:

http://www.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/d62d9cb847ef1cbd87257328006795e4/fe9a3c87c3700ce48725750d00501537/$FILE/Plannign%20Areas%20and%20HS%20Pyramids.pdf

Could someone please explain the 4 planning areas and how they will be used? Are the 4 planning areas divvying up the high schools named within the boundaries, or does it define a geographical border? I'm confused.

navy parent Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Could someone please explain the 4 planning areas
> and how they will be used? Are the 4 planning
> areas divvying up the high schools named within
> the boundaries, or does it define a geographical
> border? I'm confused.

Well all I can say is if citizen committees or task forces look at those areas ....planning area 3 is ridiculously huge with numerous unrelated areas. 1 is tiny -- Marshall is separated from Madison. The whole thing is stupid and yet another way to ignore the real issues.

22180/w Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Here's a link to the map showing the 4 planning
> areas overlaid on the current high school
> boundaries:
>
> http://www.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/d6
> 2d9cb847ef1cbd87257328006795e4/fe9a3c87c3700ce4872
> 5750d00501537/$FILE/Plannign%20Areas%20and%20HS%20
> Pyramids.pdf

Is it really true a county-wide study is underway for high school redistricting? If so, then why was there such an urgency for the last RD to go through? This could have waited until a county-wide study was underway.

why bother Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> navy parent Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Could someone please explain the 4 planning
> areas
> > and how they will be used? Are the 4 planning
> > areas divvying up the high schools named within
> > the boundaries, or does it define a
> geographical
> > border? I'm confused.
>
> Well all I can say is if citizen committees or
> task forces look at those areas ....planning area
> 3 is ridiculously huge with numerous unrelated
> areas. 1 is tiny -- Marshall is separated from
> Madison. The whole thing is stupid and yet
> another way to ignore the real issues.

Yes. This is impenetrable rubbish. I can't believe the Staff went ahead and posted this crap on the School Board's web site.

One thing I learned from the SL redistricting is that it was a done deal long before and that the town meetings and even the releases of the scenarios were gamed to quell the masses. A friend in the Oakton district knew the Navy students were coming to Oakton sometime before any info was released on the FCPS website.

Does someone out there already know what moves have been decided so we can skip at least 200 pages on this thread? Since the only option that parents and students have is to maneuver around RD's via pupil-placements, moves, rental leases, etc. it would be nice to start working on them now.

navy parent Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> One thing I learned from the SL redistricting is
> that it was a done deal long before and that the
> town meetings and even the releases of the
> scenarios were gamed to quell the masses. A
> friend in the Oakton district knew the Navy
> students were coming to Oakton sometime before any
> info was released on the FCPS website.
>
> Does someone out there already know what moves
> have been decided so we can skip at least 200
> pages on this thread? Since the only option that
> parents and students have is to maneuver around
> RD's via pupil-placements, moves, rental leases,
> etc. it would be nice to start working on them
> now.


THROW THE BUMS OUT. RECALL THE ENTIRE SCHOOL BOARD OR EAT SHIT FOR THE NEXT THREE YEARS.

I don't understand at all what this county wide redistricting means. Is it just on the high school level? Or will middle school and elementary be redistricted as well? We are currently in yet another redistricting (opening Coppermine elementary), so why didn't they just wait until this county wide reidstricitng is done. I saw the map website (thanks), but does anyone have a website to look at which describes the goals, etc., of this process?

Wow, do you believe what they are doing in the Latin I class at South Lakes. It's a pity. But I don't know how to help, do you?

Floris Mom Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don't understand at all what this county wide
> redistricting means. Is it just on the high
> school level? Or will middle school and
> elementary be redistricted as well? We are
> currently in yet another redistricting (opening
> Coppermine elementary), so why didn't they just
> wait until this county wide reidstricitng is done.
> I saw the map website (thanks), but does anyone
> have a website to look at which describes the
> goals, etc., of this process?

The goal of this county wide redistricting is to screw Western Fairfax County again, just take a look at the map.

They will be looking at all schools because they expect 12,000 more students in five years.

I believe they already know how they will redistrict all schools.

They really should have used Roman numerals for the map. It would have been so much easier to read.

The SB is moving ahead with a boundary study for the new Laurel Hill ES.

And what is the timetable for this county wide redistricting? They just redistricted us to South Lakes. (We were in Oakton District, then Westfield. . . 3 high schools in 7 years). So do they plan for us to move to yet another high school? Is there a website which discusses the SB's plans?

Floris Mom Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And what is the timetable for this county wide
> redistricting? They just redistricted us to South
> Lakes. (We were in Oakton District, then
> Westfield. . . 3 high schools in 7 years). So do
> they plan for us to move to yet another high
> school? Is there a website which discusses the
> SB's plans?


Floris Mom,

Here is the text that was copied and pasted from Boarddocs. This came from the 12/8/08 work session. Wonder what the preliminary list of schools the staff will present to the SB at the next work session. Somebody mentioned area 3 of the map was ridiculously huge and I have to agree to that.

TYPE: Discussion

BACKGROUND:

The School Board directed Facilities Planning staff to establish and regularly update a Facilities Comprehensive Plan, organized by regional areas, which reflects School Board policy and guides decision making to ensure sound instructional practices; a reasonable balance of capacity utilization; and wise, efficient, and environmentally-responsible use of resources. Implicit in this planning process is greater public engagement in planning for school facilities and CIP resource allocation recommendations which are, at present, solely staff generated.

To that end, as an element of the CIP, staff has proposed a concept to initiate a comprehensive planning initiative based on four regions that mirror the Fairfax County Comprehensive Plan, including a timeline for the implementation of four Board appointed citizen planning groups, a study period and reporting recommendations to the School Board.

KEY POINTS:

In light of the existing and growing capacity deficits due to recent and projected high enrollment, staff has recommended holding further work on renovations in abeyance in order to focus on identifying and prioritizing needed capacity enhancements, e.g., building additions, modular additions, boundary and/or program changes.

The suggested planning geography is based on longstanding County regional planning areas and smaller planning districts. While these geographies do not align to high school pyramids and school boundaries, the underlying census block groups generally align very well within in both school boundaries and County Planning areas and can provide a rich data base to inform both planning and projections for schools.

OPTIONS:

As an alternative to this process at this time, staff could develop a list of capacity enhancement projects at schools for which it is clear that boundary changes or program moves are clearly not viable options. These projects could be incorporated into next year’s CIP. This would leave a list of overcrowded schools for which staff believes there might be solutions through boundary or program changes or capacity enhancements predicated on future new major residential developments. This would allow the School Board to 1) move forward with the creation of a citizen planning group for one (or more) of the four planning areas which are deemed to be the most urgent and 2) initiate the planning process as recommended by staff. Lessons learned from this pilot study area(s) could be used to refine the process and launch the planning groups and studies for the remaining regions over whatever time period is deemed appropriate by the School Board.

Staff hopes to be able to provide a preliminary list of schools in these categories to the School Board at the work session.

Floris Mom Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> And what is the timetable for this county wide
> redistricting? They just redistricted us to South
> Lakes. (We were in Oakton District, then
> Westfield. . . 3 high schools in 7 years). So do
> they plan for us to move to yet another high
> school? Is there a website which discusses the
> SB's plans?

The kids recently moved to SLHS will go to Woodson in the new plan.

Baffled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Floris Mom Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > And what is the timetable for this county wide
> > redistricting? They just redistricted us to
> South
> > Lakes. (We were in Oakton District, then
> > Westfield. . . 3 high schools in 7 years). So
> do
> > they plan for us to move to yet another high
> > school? Is there a website which discusses the
> > SB's plans?
>
>
> Floris Mom,
>
> Here is the text that was copied and pasted from
> Boarddocs. This came from the 12/8/08 work
> session. Wonder what the preliminary list of
> schools the staff will present to the SB at the
> next work session. Somebody mentioned area 3 of
> the map was ridiculously huge and I have to agree
> to that.
>
> TYPE: Discussion
>
> BACKGROUND:
>
> The School Board directed Facilities Planning
> staff to establish and regularly update a
> Facilities Comprehensive Plan, organized by
> regional areas, which reflects School Board policy
> and guides decision making to ensure sound
> instructional practices; a reasonable balance of
> capacity utilization; and wise, efficient, and
> environmentally-responsible use of resources.
> Implicit in this planning process is greater
> public engagement in planning for school
> facilities and CIP resource allocation
> recommendations which are, at present, solely
> staff generated.
>
> To that end, as an element of the CIP, staff has
> proposed a concept to initiate a comprehensive
> planning initiative based on four regions that
> mirror the Fairfax County Comprehensive Plan,
> including a timeline for the implementation of
> four Board appointed citizen planning groups, a
> study period and reporting recommendations to the
> School Board.
>
> KEY POINTS:
>
> In light of the existing and growing capacity
> deficits due to recent and projected high
> enrollment, staff has recommended holding further
> work on renovations in abeyance in order to focus
> on identifying and prioritizing needed capacity
> enhancements, e.g., building additions, modular
> additions, boundary and/or program changes.
>
> The suggested planning geography is based on
> longstanding County regional planning areas and
> smaller planning districts. While these
> geographies do not align to high school pyramids
> and school boundaries, the underlying census block
> groups generally align very well within in both
> school boundaries and County Planning areas and
> can provide a rich data base to inform both
> planning and projections for schools.
>
> OPTIONS:
>
> As an alternative to this process at this time,
> staff could develop a list of capacity enhancement
> projects at schools for which it is clear that
> boundary changes or program moves are clearly not
> viable options. These projects could be
> incorporated into next year’s CIP. This would
> leave a list of overcrowded schools for which
> staff believes there might be solutions through
> boundary or program changes or capacity
> enhancements predicated on future new major
> residential developments. This would allow the
> School Board to 1) move forward with the creation
> of a citizen planning group for one (or more) of
> the four planning areas which are deemed to be the
> most urgent and 2) initiate the planning process
> as recommended by staff. Lessons learned from this
> pilot study area(s) could be used to refine the
> process and launch the planning groups and studies
> for the remaining regions over whatever time
> period is deemed appropriate by the School Board.
>
> Staff hopes to be able to provide a preliminary
> list of schools in these categories to the School
> Board at the work session.


Based on the above, does the SB still want to go ahead with the purchase of Gatehouse II. $300 MILLION OVER THIRTY YEARS.

Dear Baffled,

Thank you for the information. I wonder if the SB has decided to do this because of the horrible experience we all had during the SL redistricting. One thing they desperately need in our area is a high school! Floris has never had a high school to call its own. That's why we've been bounced around like ping pong balls for the past decade. Look how close Oakton, Madison and Fairfax are! I know that's were the population used to be. But now it's out here. Yes, instead of Gatehouse II, let's build some desperately needed schools!

Floris Mom Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Dear Baffled,
>
> Thank you for the information. I wonder if the SB
> has decided to do this because of the horrible
> experience we all had during the SL redistricting.
> One thing they desperately need in our area is a
> high school! Floris has never had a high school to
> call its own. That's why we've been bounced around
> like ping pong balls for the past decade. Look how
> close Oakton, Madison and Fairfax are! I know
> that's were the population used to be. But now
> it's out here. Yes, instead of Gatehouse II,
> let's build some desperately needed schools!



You are welcome. I don't know if you are aware, but last year there was some discussion on this thread regarding a much needed new high school for the western Fairfax county. It was in the outyears of the CIP, but never funded. I agree and find it very interesting that Oakton, Madison and Fairfax are so close to each other. I have always felt another new high school was needed for the WFXCTy area. IMO, FCPS staff/SB have their priorities so screwed up these days. It is beyond comprehension that they want to purchase Gatehouse II for $130 million for a total of $300 millions over 30 years with the economic challenges for the school system and school boundary challenges with more students coming in. Crazy!

The boarddocs site now has a summary of the work session where the plan was discussed. Here's what it says:

----------
NEXT STEPS:
Staff will work to identify the most urgent capacity needs in areas where they are confident about future enrollment projections, and develop its recommendations for 2009 bond referendum projects on this basis.

Staff will work to develop the details of its recommendations for the comprehensive planning process, and bring them back to the Board in the future.

Staff will return to the Board with a proposed scope for any boundary studies they believe should begin this spring.
----------

It sounds like the school board sent the staff off to do what they usually do this time of the year, instead of blessing the proposal to use the 4 planning areas to do a countywide study.

Could someone here please explain what this document says? In plane English? What will they redistrict and when will they do it?

Thanks.


-------------------------------------------------------


> TYPE: Discussion
>
> BACKGROUND:
>
> The School Board directed Facilities Planning
> staff to establish and regularly update a
> Facilities Comprehensive Plan, organized by
> regional areas, which reflects School Board policy
> and guides decision making to ensure sound
> instructional practices; a reasonable balance of
> capacity utilization; and wise, efficient, and
> environmentally-responsible use of resources.
> Implicit in this planning process is greater
> public engagement in planning for school
> facilities and CIP resource allocation
> recommendations which are, at present, solely
> staff generated.
>
> To that end, as an element of the CIP, staff has
> proposed a concept to initiate a comprehensive
> planning initiative based on four regions that
> mirror the Fairfax County Comprehensive Plan,
> including a timeline for the implementation of
> four Board appointed citizen planning groups, a
> study period and reporting recommendations to the
> School Board.
>
> KEY POINTS:
>
> In light of the existing and growing capacity
> deficits due to recent and projected high
> enrollment, staff has recommended holding further
> work on renovations in abeyance in order to focus
> on identifying and prioritizing needed capacity
> enhancements, e.g., building additions, modular
> additions, boundary and/or program changes.
>
> The suggested planning geography is based on
> longstanding County regional planning areas and
> smaller planning districts. While these
> geographies do not align to high school pyramids
> and school boundaries, the underlying census block
> groups generally align very well within in both
> school boundaries and County Planning areas and
> can provide a rich data base to inform both
> planning and projections for schools.
>
> OPTIONS:
>
> As an alternative to this process at this time,
> staff could develop a list of capacity enhancement
> projects at schools for which it is clear that
> boundary changes or program moves are clearly not
> viable options. These projects could be
> incorporated into next year’s CIP. This would
> leave a list of overcrowded schools for which
> staff believes there might be solutions through
> boundary or program changes or capacity
> enhancements predicated on future new major
> residential developments. This would allow the
> School Board to 1) move forward with the creation
> of a citizen planning group for one (or more) of
> the four planning areas which are deemed to be the
> most urgent and 2) initiate the planning process
> as recommended by staff. Lessons learned from this
> pilot study area(s) could be used to refine the
> process and launch the planning groups and studies
> for the remaining regions over whatever time
> period is deemed appropriate by the School Board.
>
> Staff hopes to be able to provide a preliminary
> list of schools in these categories to the School
> Board at the work session.

22180/w Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The boarddocs site now has a summary of the work
> session where the plan was discussed. Here's what
> it says:
>
> ----------
> NEXT STEPS:
> Staff will work to identify the most urgent
> capacity needs in areas where they are confident
> about future enrollment projections, and develop
> its recommendations for 2009 bond referendum
> projects on this basis.
>
> Staff will work to develop the details of its
> recommendations for the comprehensive planning
> process, and bring them back to the Board in the
> future.
>
> Staff will return to the Board with a proposed
> scope for any boundary studies they believe should
> begin this spring.
> ----------
>
> It sounds like the school board sent the staff off
> to do what they usually do this time of the year,
> instead of blessing the proposal to use the 4
> planning areas to do a countywide study.

Yeah, they will redo the map before they appoint their committees in the Spring to work on redistricting the whole county. Recommendations to be presented in the fall 2009, and a done deal in 2010. Fall of 2010, most of the county schools will have new boundaries. They will use tough budget times as their excuse to do it prior to their re-elections in 2011.

Floris Mom Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Dear Baffled,
>
> Thank you for the information. I wonder if the SB
> has decided to do this because of the horrible
> experience we all had during the SL redistricting.
> One thing they desperately need in our area is a
> high school! Floris has never had a high school to
> call its own. That's why we've been bounced around
> like ping pong balls for the past decade. Look how
> close Oakton, Madison and Fairfax are! I know
> that's were the population used to be. But now
> it's out here. Yes, instead of Gatehouse II,
> let's build some desperately needed schools!

Until this year, they were projecting close to 10,000 empty seats in high schools, 5 years out. Get a grip. One or two years of an influx of Hispanics from Prince William and Loudoun does not a new high school make. Not a chance. They will get Gatehouse long before you get a new high school.

Oakton and Madison are less than a mile apart, both located in Vienna. Just shows how screwed up their planning has always been.

1+2=3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Stat Man Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Statistics published by FCPS:
> >
> > http://www.fcps.edu/statis.htm
>
>
> Stat man-
> Thanks. I am familiar with site but where
> specifically did you find number of new Hispanic
> children?

It was based on a comparison of the "Student Ethnic and Gender" reports, which report such information as of September 30, 2008 and September 30, 2007, respectively You can determine the growth or decline in the Hispanic, Black, Asian, White and Multi-Ethnic enrollment for each school in 2008 compared to 2007, as well as for the entire school system.

Very cool that Stuart was listed as a Silver medalist. I know it has often been the subject of mockery.

WILL THIS THREAD EVER DIE FOR THE LOVE OF JESUS CHRIST PLEASE LET THIS THREAD DIE

MEH Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> WILL THIS THREAD EVER DIE FOR THE LOVE OF JESUS
> CHRIST PLEASE LET THIS THREAD DIE


If this thread ended then we would not have the delight of posts such as yours which certainly put a smile on my face this a.m.

so i heard from a little bird that the sun rose today..
how weird..
it's been a while since i've seen the sun..

WestfieldDad Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> > I will leave it to
> > Westfield Dad and others to address whether,
> when
> > the School Board wants to, say increase
> enrollment
> > at a school such as South Lakes, it instructs
> its
> > staff to develop a methodology that
> underestimates
> > the projected enrollment at South Lakes and
> > overestimates the projected enrollments at
> schools
> > such as Westfield and Chantilly.
> >
> A friend of mine says to never attribute to
> malevolence that which can be attributed to
> incompetence...
>
> OTH, there were a couple things that happened
> during the SL redistricting that might lead one to
> believe there was a more than a bit of malevolence
> involved -
>
> 1) Tisdtat was quoted as saying that he didn't
> believe that adding the Fox Mill/NE Floris numbers
> to the SL numbers leading to totals that filled SL
> to the brim was a problem since he didn't believe
> the Fox Mill/NE Floris kids would come anyway. In
> other words, he was providing projections in
> public that he didn't believe.
>
> 2) Tisdtat also was quoted as saying he didn't
> believe the Westfield decline either. (If not
> malevolent, he apparently believes that there's
> something in the water in western Fairfax that
> will keep 50-year olds in Floris & Virginia Run
> procreating into their 70s...)
>
> 3) And, of course, there was the fact that the 07
> CIP was used as the basis when the "Study" was
> launched. In the 07 CIP - the basis for the "too
> many kids" argument (other than 6000 showing up at
> the Westfield/Chantilly FB game...) - had
> Westfield overpopulated into the future. By the
> time of the public meetings in the fall, the 08
> CIP was out with the new numbers showing
> Westfield's decline. Given the new basis, they
> should have reconsidered whether they were
> justified in continuing, or in including
> Westfield. Instead, they went forward and began
> creating ever stupider justifications for what
> they were really doing - changing SL's
> demographics.
>
> >
> > From a forensic auditing perspective, however,
> one
> > can look at the Board's projections and see
> > whether in hindsight they missed the mark; if
> so,
> > it is circumstantial evidence of bias which the
> > Board should be required to rebut by explaining
> > why their estimates were made in good faith,
> even
> > if ultimately wrong.

Westfield Dad - You may be interested in the new CIP for FY 2010-14, which now projects that South Lakes will be overcapacity by 45 students in 2013 and that Westfield will be undercapacity by 333 students. Navy parents may also be interested in projections that Oakton will be substantially more overcrowded in 2013 than Chantilly.

Stat Man Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> Westfield Dad - You may be interested in the new
> CIP for FY 2010-14, which now projects that South
> Lakes will be overcapacity by 45 students in 2013
> and that Westfield will be undercapacity by 333
> students. Navy parents may also be interested in
> projections that Oakton will be substantially more
> overcrowded in 2013 than Chantilly.

Stat Man -

What we anti-redistricters pointed out was, if the upscale mommies and daddies who had their preciouses at the SL feeder ESes sent them to Hughes/SL instead of moving out or private schooling them, there were plenty of preciouses to fill the place. If, by moving in our preciouses from Fox Mill and Floris, you changed the perception of the place, you'd change of hundreds of future SL move/private schooling decisions, too. In other words, the pro-redistricters and the county projections assumed their project would be an utter failure, rather than even a partial success, and refused to consider what might happen if it succeeded.

Note, so far, because of the dreadful model FCPS uses to project kids, the current SL projections don't include this year's 80 or so AP (and whatever other excuse we could dream up...) outplacers from Fox Mill/Floris let alone the SL feeder mommies and daddies. If even a fraction of the outplacers change their minds, too, the County will need to move a few more than 2 trailers to SL...

WestfieldDad Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> What we anti-redistricters pointed out was, if the
> upscale mommies and daddies who had their
> preciouses at the SL feeder ESes sent them to
> Hughes/SL ...

why would anyone send their kids to Hughes when the performance is so disastrous? (see previous 363 pages)

you must be joking Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> WestfieldDad Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > What we anti-redistricters pointed out was, if
> the
> > upscale mommies and daddies who had their
> > preciouses at the SL feeder ESes sent them to
> > Hughes/SL ...
>
> why would anyone send their kids to Hughes when
> the performance is so disastrous? (see previous
> 363 pages)

While this does not answer (or, on the other hand, accept the premise of) your question, the current enrollment at Hughes is 925 students, compared to 839 in November 2007.

Stat Man Wrote:

> While this does not answer (or, on the other hand,
> accept the premise of) your question, the current
> enrollment at Hughes is 925 students, compared to
> 839 in November 2007.

That's intriguing - do you have a link to a convenient place to find net changes for the various schools?

I can find the current, not the historic figures on the individual school profiles

10% increase seems surprising - any thoughts as to what's caused this?

you must be joking Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Stat Man Wrote:
>
> > While this does not answer (or, on the other
> hand,
> > accept the premise of) your question, the
> current
> > enrollment at Hughes is 925 students, compared
> to
> > 839 in November 2007.
>
> That's intriguing - do you have a link to a
> convenient place to find net changes for the
> various schools?
>
> I can find the current, not the historic figures
> on the individual school profiles
>
> 10% increase seems surprising - any thoughts as to
> what's caused this?

There is no quick and easy way to get this information to my knowledge; however, you can find the information if you follow these steps:

1. Go to FCPS home page.

2. Click on the "School Profiles" link, and then the "Statistics" link.

3. Choose link for "Student Information and Statistical Reports."

4. The information for the current year is under "Current Monthly Membership." The information for last year is under "School Year 2007-2008." You have to search the relevant "cluster" to find the information about a particular school (Hughes is part of Cluster 8).

Stat Man Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> you must be joking Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Stat Man Wrote:
> >
> > > While this does not answer (or, on the other
> > hand,
> > > accept the premise of) your question, the
> > current
> > > enrollment at Hughes is 925 students,
> compared
> > to
> > > 839 in November 2007.
> >
> > That's intriguing - do you have a link to a
> > convenient place to find net changes for the
> > various schools?
> >
> > I can find the current, not the historic
> figures
> > on the individual school profiles
> >
> > 10% increase seems surprising - any thoughts as
> to
> > what's caused this?
>
> There is no quick and easy way to get this
> information to my knowledge; however, you can find
> the information if you follow these steps:
>
> 1. Go to FCPS home page.
>
> 2. Click on the "School Profiles" link, and then
> the "Statistics" link.
>
> 3. Choose link for "Student Information and
> Statistical Reports."
>
> 4. The information for the current year is under
> "Current Monthly Membership." The information for
> last year is under "School Year 2007-2008." You
> have to search the relevant "cluster" to find the
> information about a particular school (Hughes is
> part of Cluster 8).

great - thanks - next stop would have been the state site...

My point was, they left themselves absolutely no margin for error on the high side, and, even without any "success" feedback in the numbers, they are already projecting over capacity in the out years.

Stat Man's Hughes numbers indicate there may already be some beginnings of such feedback or feedback from the downturn in the economy as parents can't afford to a) move from places they are underwater and/or b) send their kids to private school.

The essential problem is, parents making decisions about where to live/send/keep their kids in school look at headline numbers like SAT scores, %ESOL/FRM, etc. Well, double the percentage of high test scores, etc. at SL and you'll up a headline number at least as high as Herndon/Westfield/Chantilly, maybe Oakton. The result will be more parents will decide to live in the district/keep their kids there with their elementary school friends, etc. rather than move/private school them. So, as the Fox Mill/Floris kids up the test scores at SL, more SL feeder parents will/are deciding to keep their kids in the school. Result will be overcapacity since they left no room at all for positive feedback.

you must be joking Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> WestfieldDad Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > What we anti-redistricters pointed out was, if
> the
> > upscale mommies and daddies who had their
> > preciouses at the SL feeder ESes sent them to
> > Hughes/SL ...
>
> why would anyone send their kids to Hughes when
> the performance is so disastrous? (see previous
> 363 pages)

There is a website: www.stoprd.org with more information.


that website no worky

WestfieldDad Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My point was, they left themselves absolutely no
> margin for error on the high side, and, even
> without any "success" feedback in the numbers,
> they are already projecting over capacity in the
> out years.
>
> Stat Man's Hughes numbers indicate there may
> already be some beginnings of such feedback or
> feedback from the downturn in the economy as
> parents can't afford to a) move from places they
> are underwater and/or b) send their kids to
> private school.
>
> The essential problem is, parents making decisions
> about where to live/send/keep their kids in school
> look at headline numbers like SAT scores,
> %ESOL/FRM, etc. Well, double the percentage of
> high test scores, etc. at SL and you'll up a
> headline number at least as high as
> Herndon/Westfield/Chantilly, maybe Oakton. The
> result will be more parents will decide to live in
> the district/keep their kids there with their
> elementary school friends, etc. rather than
> move/private school them. So, as the Fox
> Mill/Floris kids up the test scores at SL, more SL
> feeder parents will/are deciding to keep their
> kids in the school. Result will be overcapacity
> since they left no room at all for positive
> feedback.
>
Here is a summary of the often very significant swings in the School Board's projections for capacity balances for the various high schools in the CIP that was just released (for 2013-14) compared to last year's pre-RD CIP (for 2012-13).

Langley: 183 deficit (now projected for 2013-14) vs. 50 surplus (projected last year for 2012-13)
McLean: 115 surplus vs. 19 deficit
Herndon: 24 deficit vs. 299 surplus
South Lakes: 45 deficit vs. 750 surplus
Madison: 115 deficit vs 116 deficit
Marshall: 13 deficit vs. 71 surplus
Westfield: 333 surplus vs. 190 surplus
Chantilly: 116 deficit vs. 22 surplus
Oakton: 245 deficit vs. 80 surplus
Falls Church: 571 surplus vs. 771 surplus
Stuart: 142 surplus vs. 143 surplus
Annandale: 855 deficit vs. 109 deficit
Woodson: 306 surplus vs. 66 deficit
TJ: 131 deficit vs. 256 deficit
Fairfax: 7 suplus vs. 21 deficit
Centreville: 88 deficit vs. 21 surplus
Robinson: 169 deficit vs. 211 surplus
Lake Braddock: 663 surplus vs. 502 surplus
West Springfield: 137 deficit vs. 128 surplus
Lee: 276 surplus vs. 105 surplus
Hayfield: 138 surplus vs. 91 surplus
Edison: 218 surplus vs. 33 surplus
West Potomac: 367 deficit vs. 268 surplus
Mount Vernon: 317 surplus vs. 836 surplus
South County: 17 deficit vs. 192 deficit

so who here thinks they will go with Option 3 for Coppermine?

Stat Man Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Here is a summary of the often very significant
> swings in the School Board's projections for
> capacity balances for the various high schools in
> the CIP that was just released (for 2013-14)
> compared to last year's pre-RD CIP (for 2012-13).
>
>
> Langley: 183 deficit (now projected for 2013-14)
> vs. 50 surplus (projected last year for 2012-13)
> McLean: 115 surplus vs. 19 deficit
> Herndon: 24 deficit vs. 299 surplus
> South Lakes: 45 deficit vs. 750 surplus
> Madison: 115 deficit vs 116 deficit
> Marshall: 13 deficit vs. 71 surplus
> Westfield: 333 surplus vs. 190 surplus
> Chantilly: 116 deficit vs. 22 surplus
> Oakton: 245 deficit vs. 80 surplus
> Falls Church: 571 surplus vs. 771 surplus
> Stuart: 142 surplus vs. 143 surplus
> Annandale: 855 deficit vs. 109 deficit
> Woodson: 306 surplus vs. 66 deficit
> TJ: 131 deficit vs. 256 deficit
> Fairfax: 7 suplus vs. 21 deficit
> Centreville: 88 deficit vs. 21 surplus
> Robinson: 169 deficit vs. 211 surplus
> Lake Braddock: 663 surplus vs. 502 surplus
> West Springfield: 137 deficit vs. 128 surplus
> Lee: 276 surplus vs. 105 surplus
> Hayfield: 138 surplus vs. 91 surplus
> Edison: 218 surplus vs. 33 surplus
> West Potomac: 367 deficit vs. 268 surplus
> Mount Vernon: 317 surplus vs. 836 surplus
> South County: 17 deficit vs. 192 deficit

this looks as if they have no clue what's happening at all - and staff are trying to drive a county RD on the back of this

have they given any justification for the various changes and the changes in their assumptions? e.g. how do they get a swing of over 600 (!) at edison?

i guess that they were 'caught out' by the wave of illegals - but they clearly need to give the stats time to stabilize before they throwing the entire county up in the air

It's crazy, now that South Lakes is getting good reviews parents now want their kids to go there.

you must be joking Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Stat Man Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > Here is a summary of the often very significant
> > swings in the School Board's projections for
> > capacity balances for the various high schools
> in
> > the CIP that was just released (for 2013-14)
> > compared to last year's pre-RD CIP (for
> 2012-13).
> >
> >
> > Langley: 183 deficit (now projected for
> 2013-14)
> > vs. 50 surplus (projected last year for 2012-13)
>
> > McLean: 115 surplus vs. 19 deficit
> > Herndon: 24 deficit vs. 299 surplus
> > South Lakes: 45 deficit vs. 750 surplus
> > Madison: 115 deficit vs 116 deficit
> > Marshall: 13 deficit vs. 71 surplus
> > Westfield: 333 surplus vs. 190 surplus
> > Chantilly: 116 deficit vs. 22 surplus
> > Oakton: 245 deficit vs. 80 surplus
> > Falls Church: 571 surplus vs. 771 surplus
> > Stuart: 142 surplus vs. 143 surplus
> > Annandale: 855 deficit vs. 109 deficit
> > Woodson: 306 surplus vs. 66 deficit
> > TJ: 131 deficit vs. 256 deficit
> > Fairfax: 7 suplus vs. 21 deficit
> > Centreville: 88 deficit vs. 21 surplus
> > Robinson: 169 deficit vs. 211 surplus
> > Lake Braddock: 663 surplus vs. 502 surplus
> > West Springfield: 137 deficit vs. 128 surplus
> > Lee: 276 surplus vs. 105 surplus
> > Hayfield: 138 surplus vs. 91 surplus
> > Edison: 218 surplus vs. 33 surplus
> > West Potomac: 367 deficit vs. 268 surplus
> > Mount Vernon: 317 surplus vs. 836 surplus
> > South County: 17 deficit vs. 192 deficit
>
> this looks as if they have no clue what's
> happening at all - and staff are trying to drive a
> county RD on the back of this
>
> have they given any justification for the various
> changes and the changes in their assumptions? e.g.
> how do they get a swing of over 600 (!) at
> edison?
>
> i guess that they were 'caught out' by the wave of
> illegals - but they clearly need to give the stats
> time to stabilize before they throwing the entire
> county up in the air

A fair amount of the change is related to a change in the Staff's methodology since the December 2007 CIP was prepared for estimating school capacities. The Staff states that it now has a much better methodology, which was not in place at the time of the last redistricting, for determining a school's student capacity. In some instances, this resulted in major changes in the capacity numbers. For example, last year, the Staff asserted that McLean (one of the smallest school buildings in the county, if not the smallest) had a capacity of 1,725 student; this year, the Staff estimates McLean's capacity at 1,969 students.

The CIP also refers to an influx of new students, some of whom "may have moved to Fairfax County in response to immigration policies in surrounding jurisdictions."

There was not a 500 student shift at Edison; instead, there was an 185-student shift in the projections resulting in a current prediction that the school will have 218 spare seats. Most of this shift was again due to a change in the methodology for estimating Edison's capacity. Last year, the Staff estimated that Edison (also a comparatively small building) had room for 1,675 students; now the Staff estimates that it has room for 1800 students and will have space for 2000 students after a currently planned renovation.

I have no idea how the School Board expects residents to accept future redistrictings, at least at the high school level, when these numbers vary so much from year to year. I suspect the School Board will have to do a better job of explaining why its methodology is better now than it was before and why it went ahead and redistricted in the past on the basis of a methodology that it now concedes, at least implicitly, was flawed.

Stat Man Wrote:
r
>
> A fair amount of the change is related to a change
> in the Staff's methodology since the December 2007
> CIP was prepared for estimating school capacities.
> The Staff states that it now has a much better
> methodology, which was not in place at the time of
> the last redistricting, for determining a school's
> student capacity. In some instances, this
> resulted in major changes in the capacity numbers.
> For example, last year, the Staff asserted that
> McLean (one of the smallest school buildings in
> the county, if not the smallest) had a capacity of
> 1,725 student; this year, the Staff estimates
> McLean's capacity at 1,969 students.
>
> The CIP also refers to an influx of new students,
> some of whom "may have moved to Fairfax County in
> response to immigration policies in surrounding
> jurisdictions."
>
> There was not a 500 student shift at Edison;
> instead, there was an 185-student shift in the
> projections resulting in a current prediction that
> the school will have 218 spare seats. Most of
> this shift was again due to a change in the
> methodology for estimating Edison's capacity.
> Last year, the Staff estimated that Edison (also a
> comparatively small building) had room for 1,675
> students; now the Staff estimates that it has room
> for 1800 students and will have space for 2000
> students after a currently planned renovation.
>
> I have no idea how the School Board expects
> residents to accept future redistrictings, at
> least at the high school level, when these numbers
> vary so much from year to year. I suspect the
> School Board will have to do a better job of
> explaining why its methodology is better now than
> it was before and why it went ahead and
> redistricted in the past on the basis of a
> methodology that it now concedes, at least
> implicitly, was flawed.

stat-man - thanks

fascinating - in fact, incredible

apologies, I read off the wrong row and quoted Edison when I should have said West Potomac from (367 deficit - 268 surplus)

could you explain in simple terms what the basis of the methodology change on capacity was and the high level effects?

Fairfax Caps is working hard with the school board to keep the county schools on track, but we need your donations. If every parent could send Fairfax Caps $100 or more we can hire our lawyer again. You can donate here - http://www.fairfaxcaps.org/

you must be joking Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Stat Man Wrote:
> r
> >
> > A fair amount of the change is related to a
> change
> > in the Staff's methodology since the December
> 2007
> > CIP was prepared for estimating school
> capacities.
> > The Staff states that it now has a much better
> > methodology, which was not in place at the time
> of
> > the last redistricting, for determining a
> school's
> > student capacity. In some instances, this
> > resulted in major changes in the capacity
> numbers.
> > For example, last year, the Staff asserted
> that
> > McLean (one of the smallest school buildings in
> > the county, if not the smallest) had a capacity
> of
> > 1,725 student; this year, the Staff estimates
> > McLean's capacity at 1,969 students.
> >
> > The CIP also refers to an influx of new
> students,
> > some of whom "may have moved to Fairfax County
> in
> > response to immigration policies in surrounding
> > jurisdictions."
> >
> > There was not a 500 student shift at Edison;
> > instead, there was an 185-student shift in the
> > projections resulting in a current prediction
> that
> > the school will have 218 spare seats. Most of
> > this shift was again due to a change in the
> > methodology for estimating Edison's capacity.
> > Last year, the Staff estimated that Edison (also
> a
> > comparatively small building) had room for
> 1,675
> > students; now the Staff estimates that it has
> room
> > for 1800 students and will have space for 2000
> > students after a currently planned renovation.
> >
> > I have no idea how the School Board expects
> > residents to accept future redistrictings, at
> > least at the high school level, when these
> numbers
> > vary so much from year to year. I suspect the
> > School Board will have to do a better job of
> > explaining why its methodology is better now
> than
> > it was before and why it went ahead and
> > redistricted in the past on the basis of a
> > methodology that it now concedes, at least
> > implicitly, was flawed.
>
> stat-man - thanks
>
> fascinating - in fact, incredible
>
> apologies, I read off the wrong row and quoted
> Edison when I should have said West Potomac from
> (367 deficit - 268 surplus)
>
> could you explain in simple terms what the basis
> of the methodology change on capacity was and the
> high level effects?

As I read the materials, the Staff now asserts that its prior method of determining a high school's student capacity was flawed because it focused too much on the school's overall size or square footage, and did not adequately consider the amount of available "core" classroom space at individual schools.

Compare McLean and Marshall. Both are small buildings - Marshall (with 283,296 square feet) is slightly larger than McLean (with 282,767 square feet). McLean, however, apparently was renovated within the last decade, with more space presumably dedicated to classrooms for core subjects - English, Math, Science, Social Studies, etc. As a result, the Staff has now concluded that McLean's student capacity is 1,969, rather than 1,725, as previoulsy estimated. In comparison, even though Marshall is slightly larger, it houses an Academy program that includes Automotive repair courses. The Staff has apparently now realized that cars take up more space than (most) students, and gradually reduced Marshall's estimated capacity from 1,700 (the estimate several years ago) to 1,490.

The "methodology shift" depends solely on whatever redistricting will happen next. Again, the methodology used for the South Lakes RD was manipulated to show Westfield and Chantilly with excess students,and SL with a huge deficit of students. The actual number of students at SLHS now being larger than they forecasted is exactly what we expected. How many Fox Mill/Floris freshman are enrolled at SL and what is the percentage of FRM and ESOL just for the freshman class, I wonder. It is clear that most of the Navy students and 80 (or more) Fox Mill students showed up at Oakton this year given that the numbers stayed about the same.

So I am wondering what social engineering does the school board feel is necessary now? Move students out of South Lakes now that it's going to be over-capacity?

navy parent Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The "methodology shift" depends solely on whatever
> redistricting will happen next. Again, the
> methodology used for the South Lakes RD was
> manipulated to show Westfield and Chantilly with
> excess students,and SL with a huge deficit of
> students. The actual number of students at SLHS
> now being larger than they forecasted is exactly
> what we expected. How many Fox Mill/Floris
> freshman are enrolled at SL and what is the
> percentage of FRM and ESOL just for the freshman
> class, I wonder. It is clear that most of the
> Navy students and 80 (or more) Fox Mill students
> showed up at Oakton this year given that the
> numbers stayed about the same.
>
> So I am wondering what social engineering does the
> school board feel is necessary now? Move students
> out of South Lakes now that it's going to be
> over-capacity?

I haven't seen information that breaks down FRM/ESOL information by class. South Lakes is reporting a substantially smaller percentage of ESOL students this year vs. last year (10.5% vs. 15.1%) and a somewhat higher percentage of students receiving subsidized lunches (34.5% vs. 33.2%). The reduction is the percentage of ESOL students cannot be attributed entirely to the freshman class with some redistricted students. Some has to be attributed to a change in the composition of 10-12th graders as well.

The Peoples Voice Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fairfax Caps is working hard with the school board
> to keep the county schools on track, but we need
> your donations. If every parent could send
> Fairfax Caps $100 or more we can hire our lawyer
> again. You can donate here -
> http://www.fairfaxcaps.org/

hahahahahahahaha... this is hilarious. Ffx. CAPS is working hard with the school board!!!! I am laughing my A** off.

Statman originally wrote:

"I suspect the School Board will have to do a better job of explaining why its methodology is better now than it was before and why it went ahead and redistricted in the past on the basis of a methodology that it now concedes, at least implicitly, was flawed."

This, of course, assumes that the School Board gives a cr@p about justifying or rationally explaining the actions that it has or will take regarding redistricting decisions...you possibly are assuming a little too much, or, stated another way, are giving the School Board a little too much credit for actually employing logic in its decision making processes.

navy parent Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The "methodology shift" depends solely on whatever
> redistricting will happen next. Again, the
> methodology used for the South Lakes RD was
> manipulated to show Westfield and Chantilly with
> excess students,and SL with a huge deficit of
> students. The actual number of students at SLHS
> now being larger than they forecasted is exactly
> what we expected. How many Fox Mill/Floris
> freshman are enrolled at SL and what is the
> percentage of FRM and ESOL just for the freshman
> class, I wonder. It is clear that most of the
> Navy students and 80 (or more) Fox Mill students
> showed up at Oakton this year given that the
> numbers stayed about the same.
>
> So I am wondering what social engineering does the
> school board feel is necessary now? Move students
> out of South Lakes now that it's going to be
> over-capacity?


There were 43 freshmen students from Fox Mill that started at Oakton this year. The vast majority are there because of siblings. There were 115 students in this Fox Mill class (not includig those who placed out for GT.)

Stat man presents some pretty interesting numbers that seem to prove that the SB spooned up a big helping of "phony baloney" during the SLHS RD in regards to student population, FRM and ESOL percentages, and capacities (subtracting the Chantilly modular and Westfield addition). I don't believe anyone is shocked by these new numbers and I guarantee there will be no disclosure of exactly how they were derived.

It's pointless to spend time/$$ trying to change these pre-determined SB decisions. What WOULD be helpful is some advanced notice as to what decisions have already been made so parents can prepare to maneuver around the RD. I was lucky in that someone in passing let me know that Navy would be RD'ed to Oakton long before the scenarios were made public and while I didn't believe it for a time, I was able to prepare for it while some of my friends were convinced that they could use logic to argue against it and prevail.

FCPS has posted information on the percentage of students at the eight high schools with IB programs scoring 4s or higher on the year-end IB exams.

Here is the breakdown:

Edison 85.5%
Robinson 82.2%
Marshall 81.8%
Stuart 80.6%
Annandale 79.9%
Lee 73.5%
South Lakes 72.6%
Mount Vernon 71.0%

I also performed an additional analysis to estimate the number of IB exams being taken per graduating senior at each school. Here's what that analysis shows:

Marshall 3.40
South Lakes 2.26
Stuart 1.95
Robinson 1.89
Edison 1.83
Lee 1.64
Mount Vernon 1.41
Annandale 1.36

In comparison with the other schools, Robinson has a fair number of AP courses. As a result, while participation in IB courses at Robinson is fairly high, it appears that at year-end some students prefer to take AP exams than the IB exams.

from FCPS:

"A total of 312 Fairfax County Public Schools (FCPS) students—82.3 percent of all candidates—earned the International Baccalaureate (IB) diploma in 2008, according to figures released today by FCPS Superintendent Jack D. Dale. FCPS students completed their IB exams with 79.3 percent of exams taken scoring a 4 or higher, an increase from 76.9 percent in 2007. Since 2000, the number of students earning the IB diploma has risen steadily to this year’s high of 312. The results include all tests taken by IB students at the eight Fairfax County high schools that offer the IB program. IB tests are graded from 1 to 7, with 1 being the lowest score and 7 being the highest. "

All this money and effort from FCPS for 312 students out of how many high school seniors? Over 10,000 surely. What on earth made IB such a pet project? What is their motivation?

Stat Man Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> FCPS has posted information on the percentage of
> students at the eight high schools with IB
> programs scoring 4s or higher on the year-end IB
> exams.
>
> Here is the breakdown:
>
> Edison 85.5%
> Robinson 82.2%
> Marshall 81.8%
> Stuart 80.6%
> Annandale 79.9%
> Lee 73.5%
> South Lakes 72.6%
> Mount Vernon 71.0%
>
> I also performed an additional analysis to
> estimate the number of IB exams being taken per
> graduating senior at each school. Here's what
> that analysis shows:
>
> Marshall 3.40
> South Lakes 2.26
> Stuart 1.95
> Robinson 1.89
> Edison 1.83
> Lee 1.64
> Mount Vernon 1.41
> Annandale 1.36
>
> In comparison with the other schools, Robinson has
> a fair number of AP courses. As a result, while
> participation in IB courses at Robinson is fairly
> high, it appears that at year-end some students
> prefer to take AP exams than the IB exams.

The post from Floris Mom leads me to want to clarify that the percentages refer to the percentage of exams taken that were scored 4 or higher, not the percentage of students at a school who actually sat for such exams and received 4 or higher.

Stat Man Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> FCPS has posted information on the percentage of
> students at the eight high schools with IB
> programs scoring 4s or higher on the year-end IB
> exams.
>
> Here is the breakdown:
>
> Edison 85.5%
> Robinson 82.2%
> Marshall 81.8%
> Stuart 80.6%
> Annandale 79.9%
> Lee 73.5%
> South Lakes 72.6%
> Mount Vernon 71.0%
>
> I also performed an additional analysis to
> estimate the number of IB exams being taken per
> graduating senior at each school. Here's what
> that analysis shows:
>
> Marshall 3.40
> South Lakes 2.26
> Stuart 1.95
> Robinson 1.89
> Edison 1.83
> Lee 1.64
> Mount Vernon 1.41
> Annandale 1.36
>
> In comparison with the other schools, Robinson has
> a fair number of AP courses. As a result, while
> participation in IB courses at Robinson is fairly
> high, it appears that at year-end some students
> prefer to take AP exams than the IB exams.

Stat Man - do you know why the IB participation is so high at Marshall compared to some of the other schools?

IB Confused Wrote:

------------------------------------------------------
> Stat Man - do you know why the IB participation is
> so high at Marshall compared to some of the other
> schools?

The short answer is that I do not know the answer to your question. My speculation is that it is due to one or more of the following factors:

1. Marshall has a more affluent student population than the other IB schools, except for Robinson (which also offers AP). In general, there will be more IB or AP participation at schools with wealthier demographics.

2. Absence of AP classes, unlike Robinson (see Point #1).

3. The IB schools tend to be concentrated in the southeastern part of the county. In comparison, Marshall is in the northeastern part of the county and surrounded by AP schools such as McLean, Falls Church, Madison and Langley, so it may get pupil placements from students from those schools who want the IB curriculum.

4. Housing an IB program at a school named after the architect of the Marshall Plan may also be a plus.

One thing that is clear is that the longevity of an IB program at a particular school does not necessarily correlate to participation rates. Mount Vernon was apparently one of the first, if not the first, IB school in Fairfax County, but its students now take comparatively few IB exams.

Stat Man Wrote:

>
> The post from Floris Mom leads me to want to
> clarify that the percentages refer to the
> percentage of exams taken that were scored 4 or
> higher, not the percentage of students at a school
> who actually sat for such exams and received 4 or
> higher.

The amazing thing is that the performance stats given on the school profiles don't even distinguish between SL and HL IB exams - and don't give diploma rates!

adding up the figures for each of the IH high schools gives

7078 11/12th graders taking IB exams
so approx
3537 12th graders who should be taking the Diploma

however

only 312 students (82.3% of candidates) received diplomas
so
only 379 students attempted the diploma

which means that

less than 11% of 12th grade students at IB HS attempt the diploma
less that 9% of 12th grade students at IB HS achieve the diploma


which makes some of the statements on the school profiles stunning examples of overstatement or ambiguity e.g.

Marshall: "Over this period, our diploma achievement rate has been 94%" - but why do so few students take the diploma

SL: "...students demonstrate outstanding mastery of IB end of course assessments, with impressive scores of 82% that place them among the leaders in Fairfax County Public Schools". 82% in which exams?

The fcps website clearly provides inadequate detail on IB performance and many of the stats and statements are misleading (probably deliberately)

amazing Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> The amazing thing is that the performance stats
> given on the school profiles don't even
> distinguish between SL and HL IB exams - and don't
> give diploma rates!
>
> adding up the figures for each of the IH high
> schools gives
>
> 7078 11/12th graders taking IB exams
> so approx
> 3537 12th graders who should be taking the
> Diploma
>
> however
>
> only 312 students (82.3% of candidates)
> received diplomas
> so
> only 379 students attempted the diploma
>
> which means that
>
> less than 11% of 12th grade students at IB HS
> attempt the diploma
> less that 9% of 12th grade students at IB HS
> achieve the diploma
>
>
> which makes some of the statements on the school
> profiles stunning examples of overstatement or
> ambiguity e.g.
>
> Marshall: "Over this period, our diploma
> achievement rate has been 94%" - but why do so few
> students take the diploma
>
> SL: "...students demonstrate outstanding mastery
> of IB end of course assessments, with impressive
> scores of 82% that place them among the leaders in
> Fairfax County Public Schools". 82% in which
> exams?
>
> The fcps website clearly provides inadequate
> detail on IB performance and many of the stats and
> statements are misleading (probably deliberately)


I actually think that one of the positive things about the Fairfax system is the volume of statistical information that it releases, although some of the statistics ultimately tend to contradict statements made by FCPS personnel.

With respect to the IB programs, the actual statistics released by the schools focus on the percentage of students who enroll in IB courses and the test scores of students who sit for year-end IB exams. I do agree with you, however, that a general statement such as "our diploma achievement rate has been 94%," without additional information, is misleading, since it blurs the distinction between all students at a school, and the considerably smaller cohort of students who seek to obtain an IB diploma.

I will leave it to others to argue whether participation in IB courses is valuable even if a student does not obtain an IB diploma (or, for that matter, whether participation in AP courses is valuable even if a student does not obtain, or seek to utilize, college credit after having taken an AP course and/or exam).

Stat Man Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> I actually think that one of the positive things
> about the Fairfax system is the volume of
> statistical information that it releases, although
> some of the statistics ultimately tend to
> contradict statements made by FCPS personnel.
>

I agree that the figures are vital to help parents understand what's happening in our schools

I do think, though, that the IB reporting is so useless, that raises real suspicions.

Whereas AP is basically a single exam, IB is two levels of exam and 2 levels of qualification - it really needs to be broken out


==

BTW - the reporting of AP is also a bit odd... e.g. looking at Oakton

AP-participation # and AP-exam-tested # figures are about the same
but
AP-participation % and AP-exam-tested % figures are very different

AP-exam-tested % is basically always 100% which doesn't seem to line up with the definitions:


# AP-Participation--The number of students in grades 11 and 12 who passed at least one AP course.


# AP-Exam-Tested--The number of students in grades 11 and 12 who attempted at least one AP exam.

Am I misunderstanding this or is it a definition error/a spreadsheet error?

amazing Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Stat Man Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----

> Whereas AP is basically a single exam, IB is two
> levels of exam and 2 levels of qualification - it
> really needs to be broken out
>

They did break out & make available the HL statistics by exam

http://www.fcps.edu/mediapub/pressrel/IBscores_levelandsubject_0809.pdf

Interesting that 61% of all of the HL exams were in History of the Americas and English (over 700 each), Biology was 3rd at about 200 and no other math/science was over 100...

So, it's not exactly obvious that IB, at least as "taught" in FCPS, leads to Renaissance persons...

amazing Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Stat Man Wrote:
>
> >
> > The post from Floris Mom leads me to want to
> > clarify that the percentages refer to the
> > percentage of exams taken that were scored 4 or
> > higher, not the percentage of students at a
> school
> > who actually sat for such exams and received 4
> or
> > higher.
>
> The amazing thing is that the performance stats
> given on the school profiles don't even
> distinguish between SL and HL IB exams - and don't
> give diploma rates!
>
> adding up the figures for each of the IH high
> schools gives
>
> 7078 11/12th graders taking IB exams
> so approx
> 3537 12th graders who should be taking the
> Diploma
>
> however
>
> only 312 students (82.3% of candidates)
> received diplomas
> so
> only 379 students attempted the diploma
>
> which means that
>
> less than 11% of 12th grade students at IB HS
> attempt the diploma
> less that 9% of 12th grade students at IB HS
> achieve the diploma

Are you under thinking that most people who take an IB exam take enough exams to make them eligible for the IB Diploma? That is not true. Many students take 1 or 2 or 3 IB exams, in their strongest subjects.

So, if a school has 700 IB exams taken each year, and 40 IB Diploma Candidates, those 40 students will account for essentially 240 of the 700 exams. The other 350-500 students will account for the other 460 exams.

soccerguy315 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> Are you under thinking that most people who take
> an IB exam take enough exams to make them eligible
> for the IB Diploma? That is not true. Many
> students take 1 or 2 or 3 IB exams, in their
> strongest subjects.
>
> So, if a school has 700 IB exams taken each year,
> and 40 IB Diploma Candidates, those 40 students
> will account for essentially 240 of the 700 exams.
> The other 350-500 students will account for the
> other 460 exams.


so the 90% non-diploma candidates are taking, on average, about 1 exam.

which means that for every student who takes 2 exams, there's another who takes none. For every student who takes 3 exams, ...

its hard not to look at this as disastrously poor performance

IB diploma seems to be a good program (albeit arguably weak in hard sciences and math) but non-diploma IB does not appear to be working in preparing our students for the global marketplace

>
> IB diploma seems to be a good program (albeit
> arguably weak in hard sciences and math) but
> non-diploma IB does not appear to be working in
> preparing our students for the global marketplace


So what facts did you use to conclude that? There are plenty of students who take IB classes but don't take the tests. They may still get A's or B's in the class. What gauge are you using to say they are not prepared? Your gut? And what successfully prepares students for a global marketplace? Do you have the correct formula? Just curious, because it appears those who are working the global maketplace today have no clue. I hope they are not your gauge. Or maybe you are talking about working at Walmart, then the only prep needed for that marketplace is patience.

Why would a student take an IB class and not take the test? Especially an A/B student. I don't know much about the IB program so I am curious.

I know students at AP schools taking AP tests even though they have NOT taken the AP class, but never vice versa. And they got college credit with those scores after taking the regular course.

amazingisunamazing Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> So what facts did you use to conclude that? There
> are plenty of students who take IB classes but
> don't take the tests. They may still get A's or
> B's in the class. What gauge are you using to say
> they are not prepared? Your gut? And what
> successfully prepares students for a global
> marketplace? Do you have the correct formula?
> Just curious, because it appears those who are
> working the global maketplace today have no clue.
> I hope they are not your gauge. Or maybe you are
> talking about working at Walmart, then the only
> prep needed for that marketplace is patience.


If the ability to work at walmart is your benchmark for a successful education then I really have to worry

Un-benchmarked class scores are not the same as taking standardized exams - as we've seen every time that statewide standards are introduced

I recommend the National Academies study 'Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future'

http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11463

The PDF summary is free and the whole report can be read online

You're either serious about education and US competitiveness or you're not.

Look at the HL IB exams which are actually taken:

Hist America 748
English A1 744
Spanish B 138

Biology 194
Physic 96
Math 96


So less that 100 out of 3500 12th grade students are taking HL maths or physics exams

That's less than 3%

Now explain how this is building a sustainable skill base for the US...

Why does FCPS inflict this IB program on so many schools when AP is preferred by students and parents and is the much more recognized programs in US colleges? why not have IB as a magnet for those who really want it, and let the other schools have AP? FCPS would save millions of dollars just by giving people what they want. It would also help the kids. So why not?

amazingisunamazing Wrote:
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>
>
> So what facts did you use to conclude that? There
> are plenty of students who take IB classes but
> don't take the tests.

If you take an IB class you have to take the IB exam; if you take an AP class you also have to take the exam in FCPS. AP in some schools in other counties doesn't have the requirement that a student has to the take the test if they take the course (i.e College Board doesn't require it), but no matter where you are IBO requires a student to take the exam if they take the course.

There sure are a plethora of above-average kids in FCPS. All these IB & AP enrollments! Damn they're real smart!

That was close.

High School Sucks! Wrote:
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> There sure are a plethora of above-average kids in
> FCPS. All these IB & AP enrollments! Damn
> they're real smart!

Plethora? For give me, but I do not have your superior intellect

Clown Shoe Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> For give me, but I do not have your
> superior intellect


You're for given

High School Sucks! Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Clown Shoe Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > For give me, but I do not have your
> > superior intellect
>
>
> You're for given

"For given" is one word.

Coppermine Staff Recommendation is out.


http://www.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/d62d9cb847ef1cbd87257328006795e4/15a9bcfbf9a91f5c87257497004261d3?OpenDocument

Duplicate post



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/03/2009 09:20PM by Berdhuis.

WestfieldDad Wrote:
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> Coppermine Staff Recommendation is out.

Proposed GT Center at McNair is interesting - hopefully it works out well.