President Donald Trump has a 9 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 9 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.
The professor also said the model, which predicted Mr Trump’s election in 2016, worked partially by discounting opinion surveys.
“Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory,” he said. (SOUND FAMILIAR?)
However in Mr Norpoth’s model, not only will the president not be re-elected, but he will lose his margin in the electoral college from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 62 in 2020.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Local C
()
Date: July 12, 2020 10:08AM
Wow that's it?
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Actually its 91%
()
Date: July 12, 2020 11:15AM
The actual news story stated 91% chance of a second term for Trump.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Yes.
()
Date: July 12, 2020 11:17AM
Where did I hear this before?
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Cumbut Veteran
()
Date: July 12, 2020 10:51PM
Actually its 91% Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The actual news story stated 91% chance of a
> second term for Trump.
9%
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Local C
()
Date: July 14, 2020 02:20AM
Cumbut Veteran Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Actually its 91% Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > The actual news story stated 91% chance of a
> > second term for Trump.
>
>
> 9%
Wow that's it?
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
mcLovin
()
Date: July 14, 2020 08:15AM
the most corrupt president in history.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
letsvotenow
()
Date: July 14, 2020 04:33PM
why can't we vote now why do we have to wait til Nov?
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Trump 2020
()
Date: July 15, 2020 12:17AM
Its gonna be Trump in 2020 because people are sick of the left bullshit. Every statue pulled down is another bunch of votes for Trump. Every time Biden stumbles through a speech it is a bunch more votes for Trump. Like the real news article said 91% chance of Trump for 2020.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
TRUMP MAGA 2020
()
Date: July 15, 2020 12:57AM
,
Attachments:
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
George Floydddd
()
Date: July 15, 2020 07:08AM
George Floyd has been fentanyl free for almost 2 months!
Good job Georgie, you porch monkey!
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
letsvotenow
()
Date: July 15, 2020 03:11PM
I'm ready to vote now.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
OP is truthful
()
Date: July 15, 2020 03:11PM
He is a cumbutt sort of guy, so no wonder he posts his degenerate hopes.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Jim Rockford
()
Date: July 15, 2020 03:24PM
What were Hillary's chances?
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Actually its 91%
()
Date: July 16, 2020 11:57AM
Asshat for president.
Attachments:
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
niiiiiiiiiceee
()
Date: July 16, 2020 12:02PM
9% this time? It's going to be a real landslide, it was only 1.6% last time.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
fdhdafh
()
Date: July 16, 2020 08:45PM
let's just stop all the BS and vote now.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Trunpz is a goner
()
Date: July 16, 2020 10:59PM
Trunpz is gone.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
hahaulose
()
Date: July 16, 2020 11:35PM
He is the best the Dematards have, lol!!!
Attachments:
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
hahaulose
()
Date: July 17, 2020 09:12AM
?
Attachments:
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
hahaulose
()
Date: July 20, 2020 10:38AM
fuck Trump
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
TRUMP MAGA
()
Date: July 20, 2020 04:20PM
we gotta monster in the WH.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Actually its 91%
()
Date: July 21, 2020 08:02AM
hes gotta go enough is enough.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Vote Red
()
Date: July 21, 2020 08:13AM
Vote Republican and bring a friend! We need to fix these lawless cities and the drama of the election is preventing that from occurring.
If Joe wins we're all screwed! huge tax increases, mortgages at 8-9-10%+, we'll be sucking the teet of China and be a much weaker nation.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Never learn
()
Date: July 21, 2020 07:39PM
Trump 2020 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Its gonna be Trump in 2020 because people are sick
> of the left bullshit. Every statue pulled down is
> another bunch of votes for Trump. Every time Biden
> stumbles through a speech it is a bunch more votes
> for Trump. Like the real news article said 91%
> chance of Trump for 2020.
You dummies never learn. You’re in the minority, dummy. Most Americans want those statues down. Your dumbfuck 30 percent base isn’t America. Trump will lose big. Hillary was never leading by this much. Trump is getting crushes. Btw, the funny thing is you talk about Biden stumbling his speech. Trump can’t read and has no vocabulary, like his base
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
cargo door
()
Date: July 22, 2020 08:47PM
Cumbut Veteran Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> President Donald Trump has a 9 per cent chance of
> winning the November 2020 election, according to a
> political science professor who has correctly
> predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
>
> “The Primary Model gives Trump a 9 percent
> chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook
> professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on
> Tuesday.
>
> The professor also said the model, which predicted
> Mr Trump’s election in 2016, worked partially by
> discounting opinion surveys.
>
> “Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed
> Hillary Clinton a certain victory,” he said.
> (SOUND FAMILIAR?)
>
> However in Mr Norpoth’s model, not only will the
> president not be re-elected, but he will lose his
> margin in the electoral college from 304 electoral
> votes in 2016 to 62 in 2020.
Trump has a chance. We will see.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
90.8
()
Date: July 26, 2020 04:32PM
Jim Rockford Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What were Hillary's chances?
90.8%
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
The American People
()
Date: July 26, 2020 07:10PM
Cared less about statues other then historians and people studying the civil war
Until you got to be about 16 which was only 3 years ago freak
>Most Americans want those statues down
No, they did not care which is why they stood for over 100 years , you did and the other freaks over a nothing issue attacking dead men
Racists =Ignorant haters
Pull down statue freaks = ignorant chickenshit communist haters far worse
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
90.8%
()
Date: July 26, 2020 07:11PM
Not by the predictor who is always right retard
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
90.8%
()
Date: July 26, 2020 07:13PM
That was your own fake news and you sucked it right down Democrats
Im voting for JOE .. LOLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
90.8%
()
Date: August 02, 2020 10:47AM
.
Attachments:
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
niiiiiiiiiceee
()
Date: August 02, 2020 03:15PM
lets vote now why wait?
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
TRUMP MAGA 2020
()
Date: August 05, 2020 09:07AM
.
Attachments:
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
niiiiiiiiiceee
()
Date: August 05, 2020 10:19AM
^^ speaking the truth.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Actually its 91%
()
Date: August 05, 2020 01:14PM
one of the dumbest president ever.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Never left and never vote dem
()
Date: August 05, 2020 03:14PM
fake news.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Try loving Americans first !
()
Date: August 05, 2020 05:06PM
Never left and never vote dem Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> fake news.
Voting blue because I love America
Support trump or support Americans
You can't do both
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Liars And Traitors
()
Date: August 05, 2020 06:26PM
No proof that Trumps racist it's the way the nazis work tell a lie enough and the leeches and low info welfare addicts will believe it but no one with a brain will
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Yo! Semite!
()
Date: August 06, 2020 02:05AM
Yo! Semite!
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Big difference
()
Date: August 06, 2020 06:45AM
niiiiiiiiiceee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 9% this time? It's going to be a real landslide,
> it was only 1.6% last time.
>
> src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwrD0QoXAAE2ryH.j
> pg"/>
You dumb shit. The big difference about last time and this time is the country hadn’t seen trump as president yet. Now, we have and his record isn’t good. He’ll lose big. The funniest part is you dummies that supported him don’t realize you’re the ones he broke promises too. How’s that Mexico paying for wall thing going? I thought he was getting rid of Obamacare. You’re the ones that should be pissed. I’m thrilled he hasn’t done shit that he promised
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Big difference
()
Date: August 06, 2020 11:22AM
TRUMP ain't going no where he is president for life.
TRUMP ain't going nowhere he is president for life.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Actually its 91%
()
Date: August 11, 2020 04:53PM
Trunpz is gone.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Kamalala's Jewish husband
()
Date: August 11, 2020 05:01PM
Trump supporters are antisemites. He is a loose cannon who threatens to withdrawal from Syria. Think of the Kurds!
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Combat Vett
()
Date: August 11, 2020 06:49PM
the most corrupt president in history.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Yupp!!
()
Date: August 11, 2020 11:22PM
Yupp!!
.
Attachments:
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Deal With It
()
Date: August 12, 2020 01:07PM
TRUMP is president for life just like that Putin guy in Russia if you don't like it get the fuck out of here.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
fungolio
()
Date: August 12, 2020 01:58PM
That's what Hillary said! Haha, can't wait to see all the liberal snowflakes crying on election day. Again.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Yupp!!
()
Date: August 12, 2020 11:43PM
Yupp!!
.
Attachments:
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
TRUMP MAGA 2020
()
Date: August 14, 2020 11:11AM
let's just stop all the BS and vote now.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
42-46 Today In Favor Of JOE
()
Date: August 14, 2020 02:58PM
Of course the polls are BS and lots of Democrats don't vote but talk big especially in cities like Richmond Lynchburg Norfolk Portsmouth Hampton LOL! An all over the USA
Republicans stand in the rain for hours to vote! I do and I will ! \
TRUMP is president for life just like that Putin guy in Russia if you don't like it get the fuck out of here.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Never left and never vote dem
()
Date: August 28, 2020 02:48AM
the most corrupt president in history.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
letsvotenow
()
Date: August 29, 2020 05:43PM
why can't we vote now why do we have to wait til Nov it's all set ready to go?
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
niiiiiiiiiceee
()
Date: August 30, 2020 12:47AM
fuck Trump.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Combat Vett
()
Date: August 30, 2020 11:10AM
terms is gonna be the president again
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
chpey
()
Date: August 30, 2020 08:19PM
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
trunp2020
()
Date: August 31, 2020 11:29PM
trunp for life
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Never left and never vote dem
()
Date: September 01, 2020 10:30AM
fuck trunp
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Dems are evil
()
Date: September 01, 2020 10:33AM
Vote Red and bring two friends!
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Dems are evil
()
Date: September 01, 2020 10:39PM
fuck Red and trunp
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Dems are evil
()
Date: September 02, 2020 07:35AM
Trunpz is gone.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Dems are evil
()
Date: September 02, 2020 04:20PM
the most corrupt president in history.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
trunpforlife
()
Date: September 02, 2020 09:02PM
Where did I hear this before?
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Dems are evil
()
Date: September 05, 2020 12:45AM
trunp is a bitch
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Trump wins in 2020
()
Date: September 05, 2020 06:06AM
Dementia Joe loses badly in November libtards!
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Coonman
()
Date: September 05, 2020 11:22AM
I loves me some snowflake DEMS.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Coonman
()
Date: September 05, 2020 12:05PM
I love me some snowflake DEMS to run a train on me. I have an itchy rectum.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Combat Vett
()
Date: September 05, 2020 08:52PM
Biden lied. People died.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Trunp Is A Traitor!
()
Date: September 05, 2020 09:05PM
^^ You are stupid.
How about some hot steaming shit from truntx truth hole?
.
Attachments:
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Big difference
()
Date: September 07, 2020 10:36AM
fuck trunp
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Never left and never vote dem
()
Date: September 08, 2020 09:26PM
.
Attachments:
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Coonman
()
Date: September 13, 2020 09:54AM
.
Attachments:
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Combat Vett
()
Date: September 13, 2020 11:24AM
fuck turnp
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Never left and never vote dem
()
Date: September 13, 2020 11:30PM
why can't we vote now why do we have to wait til Nov?
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
LOLZZZZ Sharp Knives In Drawers
()
Date: September 14, 2020 12:34AM
> Combat Vett ()fuck turnp
Man if you were a combat vet its a wonder you did not get greased in nam standing up break dancing when they said get down , at first I thought you hated turnips and had a vette , corvette that is
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Black Caullk
()
Date: September 15, 2020 09:27AM
we need to get mother fucker trunp outta the WH.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Dems are evil
()
Date: September 16, 2020 09:23PM
.
Attachments:
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
trunpforlife
()
Date: September 17, 2020 12:18AM
.
Attachments:
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
trunpforlife
()
Date: September 17, 2020 09:10AM
Its gonna be Trump in 2020 because people are sick of the left bullshit. Every statue pulled down is another bunch of votes for Trump. Every time Biden stumbles through a speech it is a bunch more votes for Trump. Like the real news article said 91% chance of Trump for 2020.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Coonman
()
Date: September 18, 2020 12:04AM
Wow that's it?
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Yep its gonna be Trump in 2020
()
Date: September 18, 2020 11:13AM
Vote Red to get ahead. Only the ignorant vote blue so don't let that be you.
TRUMP FOR THE WIN 2020 and beyond. The next 3 term president.
This election will be a big FU to socialists and other low life libtards with their hands out looking for more free shit paid for by hard working Americans. That is why Trump will win. We are sick of the lying corrupt demoturds and their ignorant broke ass low life followers that can't make it in America because they are either too lazy or too stupid to embrace the opportunities and freedoms America offers to get ahead.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
loud silence
()
Date: September 21, 2020 11:02AM
Biden lied. People died.
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Actually its 91%
()
Date: September 22, 2020 07:42AM
fuck trunp
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Actually its 91%
()
Date: September 22, 2020 07:42AM
fuck trunp
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Actually its 91%
()
Date: September 22, 2020 07:42AM
fuck trunp
Re: Trump has 9% chance of winning second term
Posted by:
Dems are evil
()
Date: September 23, 2020 12:29PM
Trump can't defeat Biden because of the plans Biden has to save this country, and restore the Obama legacy.