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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Coonman ()
Date: September 16, 2020 07:13PM


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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Coonman ()
Date: September 16, 2020 07:13PM

President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.

The professor also said the model, which predicted Mr Trump’s election in 2016, worked partially by discounting opinion surveys.

“Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory,” he said. (SOUND FAMILIAR?)

However in Mr Norpoth’s model, not only will the president be re-elected, but he will expand his margin in the electoral college from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020. (Virginia will go for Trump in 2020)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/donald-trump-chance-of-winning-election-2020-joe-biden-poll-model-a9609236.html

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: AntiCom ()
Date: September 16, 2020 09:56PM

Chris Rock blasted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and other Democrats for prioritizing impeachment earlier this year, accusing them of letting the coronavirus into the country as they attempted to oust President Trump.

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: ChiCom CNN ()
Date: September 17, 2020 11:20PM

CNN panned for 'softball' Biden town hall: This isn't getting him ready for the debates



The reviews are in for the CNN town hall featuring Joe Biden... and they aren't great.

What has been described as the "softball" treatment of the former VP by CNN was widely panned on Thursday night, especially following the grilling President Trump faced at the ABC News town hall on Tuesday.

"In the first moments, the contrast between what Trump was asked and what Biden is being asked is striking," Politico columnist Jeff Greenland tweeted, later writing. "Biden is doing very well, yes. But this is not exactly getting him ready to face tough questions from a Chris Wallace or Jake Tapper (should he decide to do so)."

According to analysis from NewsBusters managing editor Curtis Houck, of the 16 participants who asked Biden questions, 13 of them, over a whopping 80 percent were identified as Democrats. Only three were identified as Republicans.

That was in stark contrast to the town hall attendees Trump faced on ABC News, which featured four Trump voters, three Hillary Clinton voters, one Jill Stein voters, three non-voters, and one unidentified.

Others picked up on the slanted questions at the CNN town hall.

"Has CNN asked a question to anyone who's not a Democrat? (may have missed)," The Daily Beast politics reporter Hanna Trudo asked about the overwhelming presence of Democratic voters before deleting her tweet.

"So far the questions at CNN’s drive-in #BidenTownHall sound as if they were written by Biden’s campaign: “Tell us how bad Trump is”. Reversal of the president’s ABC townhall," columnist Miranda Devine observed.

Many critics, including Fourth Watch media analyst Steve Kaukauer, pointed out that while maintaining social distancing for the cameras, both Biden and Cooper were seen approaching each other with the former VP whispering into the anchor's ear [or kissing him] thinking they've already hit a commercial break.

The Trump campaign released a statement slamming the CNN event.

"Virtually every question for Joe Biden was an invitation for him to attack President Trump, while moderator Anderson Cooper offered almost no pushback, giving Biden a total pass on his lies and misrepresentations," Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said before listing subjects the former VP wasn't asked like his economic record and his opposition to Trump's travel ban on China early on during the coronavirus outbreak.


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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Deal With It ()
Date: September 17, 2020 11:29PM

Can't wait for all the liberal crying in November.

Then when Trump replaces Ruthie, the liberal suicide rate will soar.

What a wonderful future.

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: That Coming to Jesus Monent ()
Date: September 17, 2020 11:46PM

Deal With It Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can't wait for all the liberal crying in
> November.
>
> Then when Trump replaces Ruthie, the liberal
> suicide rate will soar.
>
> What a wonderful future.

No friends, no future and wasting your life posting. Rember this as you’re taking that last breath.
Will you “deal with it”?

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: This Checks Out! ()
Date: September 19, 2020 08:29AM

This Checks Out!

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: 100% trunp sucks off putin! ()
Date: September 19, 2020 08:37AM

100% trunp sucks off putin!

Yep, this happening so deal with it!!


Oh yeah, pencey is getting pounded!!!


.
Attachments:
41b447682c1fab8bd67e9ce06a1bcd0532d315f13d76d10fd6872f757ec86ca8.gif
7dcbf8a4bb438edfe47f6b261f4e9af9e84c2f1a052ac968ad150146085fb127.jpg

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Coonman ()
Date: September 20, 2020 10:25PM



Liberal filmmaker Michael Moore sounded the alarm for Democrats about his home state of Michigan ahead of the November election.

During an interview on The Hill TV's "Rising," Moore began by citing a recent Detroit Free Press poll that showed President Trump cutting Joe Biden's lead "in half" since June, when the Democrat previously held a whopping 16-point lead against the GOP incumbent.

“The fact that Trump has narrowed the lead by 50 percent since June should have everybody screaming bloody murder," Moore told hosts Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti. "We don’t have a minute to lose on this.”

“It’s actually worse than Hillary. At least there was a ground game, even though she didn’t show up," Moore explained.

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: What Species Of Gross Lizard ^ ()
Date: September 20, 2020 10:35PM

Is that gruesome bizarre thing ! Its a LibZard !

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Biden 2020 ()
Date: September 20, 2020 10:40PM

Coonman Wrote:
----------------------------------------------

>
> Liberal filmmaker Michael Moore sounded the alarm
> for Democrats about his home state of Michigan
> ahead of the November election.
>
> During an interview on The Hill TV's "Rising,"
> Moore began by citing a recent Detroit Free Press
> poll that showed President Trump cutting Joe
> Biden's lead "in half" since June, when the
> Democrat previously held a whopping 16-point lead
> against the GOP incumbent.
>
> “The fact that Trump has narrowed the lead by 50
> percent since June should have everybody screaming
> bloody murder," Moore told hosts Krystal Ball and
> Saagar Enjeti. "We don’t have a minute to lose
> on this.”
>
> “It’s actually worse than Hillary. At least
> there was a ground game, even though she didn’t
> show up," Moore explained.


GOD DAMN MAN, you have to give a warning before posting such a grotesque picture. I threw up a little. What a waste of protoplasm that lib is.

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: LibZard's Love Dems ()
Date: September 20, 2020 10:48PM

Dems draw the flies and the LibZard eats them . Note his tongue is about to strike , he's on CCN their newsman is very close

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: LibZards Got This ()
Date: September 20, 2020 10:54PM

LibZards feeding
Attachments:
shefeedingLibZard.jpg

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Dddddoooohhhh ()
Date: September 21, 2020 09:43AM

Prime Libtard Manmeat
Attachments:
Michael Moore-Family Guy v2.png

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Winning... ()
Date: September 21, 2020 09:27PM


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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Is That High Beams Thing Above ()
Date: September 22, 2020 12:13AM

A LibZARD or a Sloth

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: AntiCom ()
Date: September 23, 2020 10:20AM

Senate committees release interim report on Hunter Biden, Burisma probe
Report says Obama administration 'ignored the glaring warning signs' when Biden's son joined board of the company



The Senate Homeland Security and Finance Committees on Wednesday released an interim report on their monthslong joint investigation into Hunter Biden’s role on the board of Ukrainian natural gas firm Burisma Holdings and his alleged “extensive and complex financial transactions.”

Homeland Security Committee Chairman Ron Johnson, R-Wis., and Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said their investigation has “faced many obstacles” from Democrats on their committees.

The 87-page report stated that Obama administration officials “knew” that Hunter Biden’s position on the board of Burisma was “problematic” and that it interfered “in the efficient execution of policy with respect to Ukraine.”

“This investigation has illustrated the extent to which officials within the Obama administration ignored the glaring warning signs when the vice president’s son joined the board of a company owned by a corrupt Ukrainian oligarch,” the report’s executive summary stated.

“Even though Hunter Biden’s position on Burisma’s board cast a shadow over the work of those advancing anticorruption reforms in Ukraine, the Committees are only aware of two individuals who raised concerns to their superiors,” the Senate report stated. “Despite the efforts of these individuals, their concerns appear to have fallen on deaf ears.”

The report stated that State Department official George Kent, who testified during Trump’s impeachment hearings last year, and Amos Hochstein, the former U.S. special envoy and coordinator for International Energy Affairs, raised concerns to the former vice president’s office.

The Senate committees also revealed in the report that they obtained records from the U.S. Treasury Department, which “show potential criminal activity relating to transactions among and between Hunter Biden, his family, and his associates with Ukrainian, Russian, Kazakh and Chinese nationals.”

The committees stated that they received records that Hunter Biden “sent thousands of dollars” to individuals who have “either been involved in transactions consistent with possible human trafficking; an association with the adult entertainment industry; or potential association with prostitution.”

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: AntiCom ()
Date: September 23, 2020 12:54PM



















































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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Checker of facts ()
Date: September 23, 2020 05:39PM

^^^^^
This REALLY checks out!!

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Biden 2020 ()
Date: September 23, 2020 05:57PM

The president takes the lead over Biden 51%-47% among likely voters in Florida and Trump now holds a 1-point 49%-48% edge over the former vice president among likely voters in Arizona, according to ABC News/Washington Post public opinion surveys released on Wednesday. The president’s margins in both polls are within the sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, meaning the races are practically tied between the two candidates.

The president’s ahead of his Democratic challenger 48%-46% among likely voters in Georgia, according to a high voter turnout model in a Monmouth University survey that was also released on Wednesday. Trump’s 2-point edge is within the poll’s plus or minus 4.9% margin of error.

The ABC News/Washington Post highlights that “a challenge for Biden is his tepid 13-point lead among Hispanics in the state (using registered voters for an adequate sample size); Hillary Clinton won Florida Hispanics by 27 percentage points in 2016.”

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: second term ()
Date: September 24, 2020 11:16AM

Way the system is Biden has to get 5 million more popular votes to have a probably of winning. Dottard has a 4-5 million vote handicap.

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: DEMS = DUMBASSES ()
Date: September 24, 2020 11:20AM

second term Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Way the system is Biden has to get 5 million more
> popular votes to have a probably of winning.
> Dottard has a 4-5 million vote handicap.


Don't like the US CONSTITUTION???? Move back to Russia you Communist Pig!!!!!! Sounds like their constitution is exactly what you like.

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Dems are evil ()
Date: September 25, 2020 04:40PM

Virginia counties see multiple absentee ballots sent to more than 1,400 voters.

Fairfax saw the majority of the duplicate ballots, with about 1,000, out of roughly 1,400 across the state.

Another 300 were sent to voters in the city of Richmond and 100 in Henrico County, just to the north.

The registrars of Richmond and Henrico did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Neither did Gov. Ralph Northam’s office nor the state’s Department of Elections.

GGGGGGGeeeeeeeeeeeeee, can anyone guess what party controls those areas??????

CORRUPT DEMOCRATS ARE AT IT AGAIN!!!!!!!

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: RogersRangers ()
Date: September 25, 2020 05:43PM

THESE TWO THINGS ARE TRUE:

1. I will be enthusiastically voting for PRESIDENT TRUMP!

2. PRESIDENT TRUMP unfortunately is going take an ASS WHIPPING!

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: RogersRangers ()
Date: September 25, 2020 05:43PM

THESE TWO THINGS ARE TRUE:

1. I will be enthusiastically voting for PRESIDENT TRUMP!

2. PRESIDENT TRUMP unfortunately is going take an ASS WHIPPING!

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Rogers ()
Date: September 25, 2020 07:02PM

RogersRangers Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> THESE TWO THINGS ARE TRUE:
>
> 1. I will be enthusiastically voting for PRESIDENT
> TRUMP!
>
> 2. PRESIDENT TRUMP unfortunately is going take an
> ASS WHIPPING!

But will still win.

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: AntiCom ()
Date: September 25, 2020 07:12PM


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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: AntiCom ()
Date: September 25, 2020 07:13PM


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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: AntiCom ()
Date: September 27, 2020 10:21AM

Trump Wins Blue Virginia



EDTRUMPWINS.jpg

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Trump wins in 2020 ()
Date: September 27, 2020 11:14AM

Trump wins Virginia! President Trump relected in 2020. Four more years of MAGA!

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: This Checks Out! ()
Date: September 27, 2020 09:33PM

This Checks Out!

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Winner,Winner,Free Prison Dinner ()
Date: September 27, 2020 11:01PM

Trump wins in 2020 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Trump wins Virginia! President Trump relected in
> 2020. Four more years of MAGA!


Yep, we have very good federal prisons to continue his public housing. Trump is a real winner.

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: ChiCom CNN ()
Date: September 30, 2020 07:58AM


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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: ChiCom CNN ()
Date: October 01, 2020 09:25PM


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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Biden 2020 ()
Date: October 05, 2020 09:14PM


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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Dems are evil ()
Date: October 06, 2020 12:21AM

.
Attachments:
6880291541760462086.gif

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Biden 2020 ()
Date: October 07, 2020 09:35PM


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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: BULLSHIT Biden ()
Date: October 07, 2020 10:45PM

Trump 2020




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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Fly 2020 ()
Date: October 07, 2020 11:09PM

Here’s the eavesdropping Pence was whining about
Attachments:
670E0415-5796-459C-9C85-0387614A1D65.png

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: ChiCom CNN ()
Date: October 09, 2020 08:26PM


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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Checker of facts ()
Date: October 11, 2020 02:26AM

ChiCom CNN Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>

^^^^^
This REALLY checks out!

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Ygrdf ()
Date: October 11, 2020 09:07AM

d

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: WashPoo ()
Date: October 11, 2020 10:02AM

TRUMP WINS - An analysis of the polls then and now



Today, Fivethirtyeight thinks Biden has an 85% chance of winning the election. An almost slam dunk case. I disagree. 85% chance of winning the popular vote, yes. But the election? No.

In this article I am going to assume that the current polls in each state have the same bias as they had in 2016 and I will adjust the current poll results to estimate the true intentions of the voters. At the end of this article, we will have a better idea about who will win the presidency.

1. Alabama
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 21.6 points
Actual result: Trump won by 27.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 25.5 points
Trump: 9 - Biden:0

2. Alaska
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 7.3 points
Actual result: Trump won by 14.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.4 points
Trump: 12 - Biden:0

3. Arizona
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 3.3 points
Actual result: Trump won by 3.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 2.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 2.9 points
Trump: 23 - Biden:0

4. Arkansas
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 19.8 points
Actual result: Trump won by 26.9 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.5 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 26.6 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:0

5. California
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 22.5 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 30.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 30.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 38.3 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:55

6. Colorado
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 3.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 4.9 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 10.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 12.1 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:64

7. Connecticut
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 11.1 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 13.6 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 21.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 24.3 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:71

8. Delaware
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 11.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 25 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 24.2 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:74

9. District of Columbia
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 70.8 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 86.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 83.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 88 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:77

10. Florida**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 0.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 1.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 3.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1 vote (Even though Biden has the edge right now, I think this is temporary and Trump will close the gap in the next 3 weeks. I think Trump has a 50.1% probability of winning Florida)
Trump: 58 - Biden:77

11. Georgia
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 4.7 points
Actual result: Trump won by 5.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.1+ points
Trump: 74 - Biden:77

12. Hawaii
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 24.5 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 32.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 35 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 42.3 points
Trump: 74 - Biden:80

13. Idaho
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 21.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 31.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 25.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 36.5 points
Trump: 78 - Biden:80

14. Illinois
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.8 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 17.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 19.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 23.5 points
Trump: 78 - Biden:100

15. Indiana
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 11.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 19.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 11.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 18.6 points
Trump: 89 - Biden:100

16. Iowa
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 3.3 points
Actual result: Trump won by 9.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1 point
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 7.1 points
Trump: 95 - Biden:100

17. Kansas
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 13.2 points
Actual result: Trump won by 20.6 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 10 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 17.4 points
Trump: 101 - Biden:100

18. Kentucky
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 18.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 29.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 19.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 30.7 points
Trump: 109 - Biden:100

19. Louisiana
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 16.4 points
Actual result: Trump won by 19.6 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 14.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 17.6 points
Trump: 117 - Biden:100

20. Maine
Maine isn't a "winner-take-all" state. The winner of the popular vote will get 2 electoral votes and the winner of each of two districts will get 1 electoral vote. It is near certain that Biden will win the statewide race and the first district. The only competitive race is in the second district. Fivethirtyeight thinks Trump will win this district by 0.9 points. We agree. Here are the stats for the entire state:
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 6.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 3.0 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 12 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 8.8 points
Trump: 118 - Biden:103

21. Maryland
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 26.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 26.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 31.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 31 points
Trump: 118 - Biden:113

22. Massachusetts
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 22.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 27.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 34.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 38.9 points
Trump: 118 – Biden:124

23. Michigan**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 4.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 2.6 points (This is another battleground state. Biden has the edge now, but Trump might be able to close the gap over the next 3 weeks)
Trump: 118 – Biden:140

24. Minnesota**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.1 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 1.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 1.5 points (This is another battleground state. Biden has the edge now, but Trump might be able to close the gap over the next 3 weeks)
Trump: 118 – Biden:150

25. Mississippi
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 15 points
Actual result: Trump won by 17.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 11.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.4 points
Trump: 124 – Biden:150

26. Missouri
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 11.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 18.6 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 8.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 16.3 points
Trump: 134 – Biden:150

27. Montana
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 15.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 20.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 10.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 15.2 points
Trump: 137 – Biden:150

28. Nebraska
Nebraska also splits the electoral votes by district, but this won’t be a close race. Here are the stats for the entire state:
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 19.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 25 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 17.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 22.5 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:150

29. Nevada
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 0.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 2.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 7.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 9.4 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:156

30. New Hampshire
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 2.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 0.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 9.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 4.2 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:160

31. New Jersey
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 11.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 14.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 18.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 21.3 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:174

32. New Mexico
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 8.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 14.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 16.7 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:179

33. New York
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 19.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 22.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 29.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 32.4 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:208

34. North Carolina**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 0.0 points (not a typo)
Actual result: Trump won by 3.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1.9 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.8 points (This is a battleground state, but we think Trump is likely to win NC).
Trump: 157 – Biden:208

35. North Dakota
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 23.5 points
Actual result: Trump won by 35.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 25.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 37.3 points
Trump: 160 – Biden:208

36. Ohio**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 1.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 8.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.5 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 5.7 points (Pollsters think Ohio is a battleground state. We disagree.)
Trump: 178 – Biden:208

37. Oklahoma
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 27.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 36.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 26.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 35.8 points
Trump: 185 – Biden:208

38. Oregon
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 8.8 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 11 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 17.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 19.6 points
Trump: 185 – Biden:215

39. Pennsylvania**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 3.6 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins/loses by 0.0 points (I can’t make a prediction regarding PA. Biden’s numbers improved significantly over the last couple of weeks. I think Trump will improve enough to make PA a true battleground state. I will make a final call at the end of the article).
Trump: 185 – Biden:215

40. Rhode Island
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 13.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 15.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 24.9 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 27.0 points
Trump: 185 – Biden:219

41. South Carolina
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 6.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 14.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 6.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.2 points
Trump: 194 – Biden:219

42. South Dakota
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 17.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 29.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 32.5 points
Trump: 197 – Biden:219

43. Tennessee
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 13.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 26.0 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 16.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 29.1 points
Trump: 208 – Biden:219

44. Texas
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 9.6 points
Actual result: Trump won by 9.0 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 3.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 2.8 points (Texas won’t be a battleground state in this election, but it may be in the next one)
Trump: 244 – Biden:219

45. Utah
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 10.8 points
Actual result: Trump won by 18.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 16.5 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 23.8 points
Trump: 250 – Biden:219

46. Vermont
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 26.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 26.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 33.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 33.6 points
Trump: 250 – Biden:222

47. Virginia
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 4.9 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 5.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 13.0 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 13.4 points
Trump: 250 – Biden:235

48. Washington
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.3 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 15.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 25.9 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 29.3 points
Trump: 250 – Biden:243

49. West Virginia
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 27.2 points
Actual result: Trump won by 42.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 30.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 45.1 points
Trump: 255 – Biden:243

50. Wisconsin**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 0.6 points (This is a battleground state. Right now Trump is slightly behind but he has 3 weeks to gain a small edge over Biden)
Trump: 255 – Biden:253

51. Wyoming
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 36.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 46.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 39.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 49 points
Trump: 258 – Biden:253

Conclusion

I haven’t made a call about Pennsylvania yet. So far the battleground states are Florida (Trump:29 votes), Michigan (Biden:16 votes), Minnesota (Biden:10 votes), North Carolina (Trump:15 votes), Ohio (Trump:18 votes), and Wisconsin (Biden:10 votes). I don’t think Ohio is really a battleground state.

If Trump wins North Carolina (very likely), Florida (coin toss), and Pennsylvania (coin toss) he will win the election. Alternatively, Donald Trump can still win the election if he can deliver an upset victory in Michigan, and win Florida. A third way for Trump to win the election is by winning Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Florida. So, assuming that Trump wins Florida and North Carolina, his probability of winning the election is about 65%.

I don’t believe Joe Biden has an 85% chance of winning the election right now. I am certain that the outcome of this election is still extremely uncertain.

https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/who-will-win-the-presidency-883810/

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: This Checks Out! ()
Date: October 13, 2020 08:15PM

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This Checks Out!

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Bill.N. ()
Date: October 14, 2020 09:37AM

The decisive state in 2020 isn't Pennsylvania. It is Michigan. If Trump wins in Pennsylvania he will almost certainly win Michigan too. However if Trump wins only one of the two states, it will likely be Michigan. Republican numbers indicate of the two states Trump is doing better in Michigan.

If Biden wins it is reasonably possible for him to carry Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. Georgia and Iowa would be a stretch. If Trump wins it is reasonably possible that he may carry Wisconsin and Minnesota, with Nevada as a stretch. Despite what WashPoo says I think there is a very good chance Biden will carry Nebraska's second district. Its only one electoral vote, but in a close race one is helpful.

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: AntiCom ()
Date: October 14, 2020 07:23PM

Ohio have voted for the winner everytime in the last 76 years.

Trump has Ohio!!!!

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Biden 2020 ()
Date: October 15, 2020 06:32PM


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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: ChiCom CNN ()
Date: October 17, 2020 08:50AM


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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Bill N. is a moron ()
Date: October 17, 2020 08:54AM

Bill.N. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The decisive state in 2020 isn't Pennsylvania. It
> is Michigan. If Trump wins in Pennsylvania he
> will almost certainly win Michigan too. However
> if Trump wins only one of the two states, it will
> likely be Michigan. Republican numbers indicate
> of the two states Trump is doing better in
> Michigan.
>
> If Biden wins it is reasonably possible for him to
> carry Florida, North Carolina and Arizona.
> Georgia and Iowa would be a stretch. If Trump
> wins it is reasonably possible that he may carry
> Wisconsin and Minnesota, with Nevada as a stretch.
> Despite what WashPoo says I think there is a very
> good chance Biden will carry Nebraska's second
> district. Its only one electoral vote, but in a
> close race one is helpful.


Like you have access to "republican numbers". Fool

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Wing Tu ()
Date: October 17, 2020 09:03AM

If Biden wins, you'll all get to see what it's like to live under communism. Joe is a puppet of the Chinese Communist Party. Fact!

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Making America Great Again ()
Date: October 17, 2020 03:43PM

Coonman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> <


MAGA 2020

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Biden 2020 ()
Date: October 23, 2020 08:53PM


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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: ChiCom CNN ()
Date: October 24, 2020 07:47AM

Independent voters 'leaning' toward voting Trump over media ignoring Hunter Biden story



'You know what Americans don't like? They don't liked a rigged deck,'


Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: This Checks Out! ()
Date: October 24, 2020 07:17PM

This Checks Out!

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: Trump USA #1 ()
Date: October 24, 2020 08:34PM

> >
> <
>
>
The mighty Trump is victorius once again in 2020!

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: This Checks Out! ()
Date: October 25, 2020 09:05AM

ChiCom CNN Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>

Independent voters 'leaning' toward voting
> Trump over media ignoring Hunter Biden story


>
>

'You know what Americans don't like? They
> don't liked a rigged deck,'




This Checks Out!

Options: ReplyQuote
Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: ajatja ()
Date: October 26, 2020 10:24PM

The Supreme Court on Monday ruled against a request by Wisconsin Democrats to allow an extension for mail-in ballots that are received after Election Day.

In a 5-3 ruling, the justices refused to reinstate a lower court order that called for mailed ballots to be counted if they are received up to six days after the Nov. 3 election. A federal appeals court had already put that order on hold.

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Re: Trump has 91% chance of winning second term
Posted by: You'll miss him.... ()
Date: October 26, 2020 10:31PM

.
Attachments:
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