TRUMP WINS - An analysis of the polls then and now
Today, Fivethirtyeight thinks Biden has an 85% chance of winning the election. An almost slam dunk case. I disagree. 85% chance of winning the popular vote, yes. But the election? No.
In this article I am going to assume that the current polls in each state have the same bias as they had in 2016 and I will adjust the current poll results to estimate the true intentions of the voters. At the end of this article, we will have a better idea about who will win the presidency.
1. Alabama
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 21.6 points
Actual result: Trump won by 27.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 25.5 points
Trump: 9 - Biden:0
2. Alaska
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 7.3 points
Actual result: Trump won by 14.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.4 points
Trump: 12 - Biden:0
3. Arizona
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 3.3 points
Actual result: Trump won by 3.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 2.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 2.9 points
Trump: 23 - Biden:0
4. Arkansas
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 19.8 points
Actual result: Trump won by 26.9 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.5 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 26.6 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:0
5. California
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 22.5 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 30.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 30.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 38.3 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:55
6. Colorado
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 3.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 4.9 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 10.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 12.1 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:64
7. Connecticut
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 11.1 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 13.6 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 21.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 24.3 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:71
8. Delaware
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 11.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 25 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 24.2 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:74
9. District of Columbia
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 70.8 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 86.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 83.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 88 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:77
10. Florida**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 0.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 1.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 3.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1 vote (Even though Biden has the edge right now, I think this is temporary and Trump will close the gap in the next 3 weeks. I think Trump has a 50.1% probability of winning Florida)
Trump: 58 - Biden:77
11. Georgia
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 4.7 points
Actual result: Trump won by 5.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.1+ points
Trump: 74 - Biden:77
12. Hawaii
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 24.5 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 32.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 35 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 42.3 points
Trump: 74 - Biden:80
13. Idaho
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 21.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 31.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 25.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 36.5 points
Trump: 78 - Biden:80
14. Illinois
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.8 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 17.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 19.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 23.5 points
Trump: 78 - Biden:100
15. Indiana
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 11.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 19.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 11.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 18.6 points
Trump: 89 - Biden:100
16. Iowa
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 3.3 points
Actual result: Trump won by 9.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1 point
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 7.1 points
Trump: 95 - Biden:100
17. Kansas
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 13.2 points
Actual result: Trump won by 20.6 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 10 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 17.4 points
Trump: 101 - Biden:100
18. Kentucky
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 18.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 29.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 19.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 30.7 points
Trump: 109 - Biden:100
19. Louisiana
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 16.4 points
Actual result: Trump won by 19.6 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 14.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 17.6 points
Trump: 117 - Biden:100
20. Maine
Maine isn't a "winner-take-all" state. The winner of the popular vote will get 2 electoral votes and the winner of each of two districts will get 1 electoral vote. It is near certain that Biden will win the statewide race and the first district. The only competitive race is in the second district. Fivethirtyeight thinks Trump will win this district by 0.9 points. We agree. Here are the stats for the entire state:
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 6.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 3.0 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 12 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 8.8 points
Trump: 118 - Biden:103
21. Maryland
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 26.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 26.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 31.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 31 points
Trump: 118 - Biden:113
22. Massachusetts
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 22.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 27.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 34.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 38.9 points
Trump: 118 – Biden:124
23. Michigan**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 4.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 2.6 points (This is another battleground state. Biden has the edge now, but Trump might be able to close the gap over the next 3 weeks)
Trump: 118 – Biden:140
24. Minnesota**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.1 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 1.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 1.5 points (This is another battleground state. Biden has the edge now, but Trump might be able to close the gap over the next 3 weeks)
Trump: 118 – Biden:150
25. Mississippi
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 15 points
Actual result: Trump won by 17.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 11.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.4 points
Trump: 124 – Biden:150
26. Missouri
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 11.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 18.6 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 8.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 16.3 points
Trump: 134 – Biden:150
27. Montana
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 15.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 20.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 10.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 15.2 points
Trump: 137 – Biden:150
28. Nebraska
Nebraska also splits the electoral votes by district, but this won’t be a close race. Here are the stats for the entire state:
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 19.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 25 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 17.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 22.5 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:150
29. Nevada
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 0.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 2.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 7.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 9.4 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:156
30. New Hampshire
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 2.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 0.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 9.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 4.2 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:160
31. New Jersey
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 11.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 14.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 18.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 21.3 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:174
32. New Mexico
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 8.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 14.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 16.7 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:179
33. New York
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 19.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 22.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 29.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 32.4 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:208
34. North Carolina**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 0.0 points (not a typo)
Actual result: Trump won by 3.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1.9 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.8 points (This is a battleground state, but we think Trump is likely to win NC).
Trump: 157 – Biden:208
35. North Dakota
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 23.5 points
Actual result: Trump won by 35.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 25.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 37.3 points
Trump: 160 – Biden:208
36. Ohio**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 1.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 8.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.5 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 5.7 points (Pollsters think Ohio is a battleground state. We disagree.)
Trump: 178 – Biden:208
37. Oklahoma
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 27.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 36.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 26.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 35.8 points
Trump: 185 – Biden:208
38. Oregon
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 8.8 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 11 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 17.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 19.6 points
Trump: 185 – Biden:215
39. Pennsylvania**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 3.6 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins/loses by 0.0 points (I can’t make a prediction regarding PA. Biden’s numbers improved significantly over the last couple of weeks. I think Trump will improve enough to make PA a true battleground state. I will make a final call at the end of the article).
Trump: 185 – Biden:215
40. Rhode Island
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 13.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 15.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 24.9 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 27.0 points
Trump: 185 – Biden:219
41. South Carolina
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 6.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 14.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 6.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.2 points
Trump: 194 – Biden:219
42. South Dakota
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 17.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 29.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 32.5 points
Trump: 197 – Biden:219
43. Tennessee
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 13.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 26.0 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 16.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 29.1 points
Trump: 208 – Biden:219
44. Texas
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 9.6 points
Actual result: Trump won by 9.0 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 3.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 2.8 points (Texas won’t be a battleground state in this election, but it may be in the next one)
Trump: 244 – Biden:219
45. Utah
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 10.8 points
Actual result: Trump won by 18.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 16.5 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 23.8 points
Trump: 250 – Biden:219
46. Vermont
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 26.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 26.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 33.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 33.6 points
Trump: 250 – Biden:222
47. Virginia
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 4.9 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 5.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 13.0 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 13.4 points
Trump: 250 – Biden:235
48. Washington
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.3 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 15.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 25.9 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 29.3 points
Trump: 250 – Biden:243
49. West Virginia
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 27.2 points
Actual result: Trump won by 42.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 30.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 45.1 points
Trump: 255 – Biden:243
50. Wisconsin**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 0.6 points (This is a battleground state. Right now Trump is slightly behind but he has 3 weeks to gain a small edge over Biden)
Trump: 255 – Biden:253
51. Wyoming
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 36.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 46.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 39.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 49 points
Trump: 258 – Biden:253
Conclusion
I haven’t made a call about Pennsylvania yet. So far the battleground states are Florida (Trump:29 votes), Michigan (Biden:16 votes), Minnesota (Biden:10 votes), North Carolina (Trump:15 votes), Ohio (Trump:18 votes), and Wisconsin (Biden:10 votes). I don’t think Ohio is really a battleground state.
If Trump wins North Carolina (very likely), Florida (coin toss), and Pennsylvania (coin toss) he will win the election. Alternatively, Donald Trump can still win the election if he can deliver an upset victory in Michigan, and win Florida. A third way for Trump to win the election is by winning Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Florida. So, assuming that Trump wins Florida and North Carolina, his probability of winning the election is about 65%.
I don’t believe Joe Biden has an 85% chance of winning the election right now. I am certain that the outcome of this election is still extremely uncertain.
https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/who-will-win-the-presidency-883810/