Fairfax County General :
Fairfax Underground
Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
Welcome to Fairfax Underground, a project site designed to improve communication among residents of Fairfax County, VA. Feel free to post anything Northern Virginia residents would find interesting.
The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by:
Algebra 101
()
Date: March 21, 2020 08:11AM
Given two data points, we can construct an exponential curve depicting the growth rate of Corona Virus in the U.S.
Point 1 (Feb 15, there were 12 known cases): (0,12)
Point 2 (Mar 20, there were 18980 known cases): (35, 18980)
Using those two points and solving equation f(t) = Ae^kt
You arrive at: f(t) = 12e^0.2105t
PREDICTIONS:
March 25th: f(40) = 12e^(0.2105*40) = 54,442 cases
March 30th: f(45) = 12e^(0.2105*45) = 155,968 cases
April 15th: f(60) = 12e^(0.2105*60) = 3,667,081 cases
Let's hope this maf is wrong.
Data point source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Point 1 (Feb 15, there were 12 known cases): (0,12)
Point 2 (Mar 20, there were 18980 known cases): (35, 18980)
Using those two points and solving equation f(t) = Ae^kt
You arrive at: f(t) = 12e^0.2105t
PREDICTIONS:
March 25th: f(40) = 12e^(0.2105*40) = 54,442 cases
March 30th: f(45) = 12e^(0.2105*45) = 155,968 cases
April 15th: f(60) = 12e^(0.2105*60) = 3,667,081 cases
Let's hope this maf is wrong.
Data point source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by:
girly men out the woodwork
()
Date: March 21, 2020 08:43AM
1. The curve is already flattening in Washington State, so you numbers are already wrong.
2. The mortality rate is falling fast, so even your incorrect numbers would mean about 35,000 deaths in the US. About average for a severe flu season.
You shouldn't post anymore. You're too retarded.
2. The mortality rate is falling fast, so even your incorrect numbers would mean about 35,000 deaths in the US. About average for a severe flu season.
You shouldn't post anymore. You're too retarded.
Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by:
Extrapolation
()
Date: March 21, 2020 09:29AM
using the above equation we run the risk of ten times as many people having this virus as there are people... two data points might not be the best basis for long term projections.
Wash your hands, don’t cough on grandma, stop doing shitty math to scare people and CALM DOWN!
Unless social distancing killed your job the last two weeks, then you should probably freak out.
Wash your hands, don’t cough on grandma, stop doing shitty math to scare people and CALM DOWN!
Unless social distancing killed your job the last two weeks, then you should probably freak out.
Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by:
nkjm9
()
Date: March 21, 2020 10:04AM
Original poster is a hysterical moron. There were not even any new reported cases in Fairfax Health District yesterday. Not doubling every two days here.
Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by:
goddamn retards
()
Date: March 21, 2020 10:14AM
Well fuck. Next year about this time 478 Billion Americans will have the virus.
You people are hoopleheads.
You people are hoopleheads.
Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by:
exactly
()
Date: March 21, 2020 04:30PM
nkjm9 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Original poster is a hysterical moron. There were
> not even any new reported cases in Fairfax Health
> District yesterday. Not doubling every two days
> here.
The Corona virus statistic thread is rambling and a bit drugged out but more real.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Original poster is a hysterical moron. There were
> not even any new reported cases in Fairfax Health
> District yesterday. Not doubling every two days
> here.
The Corona virus statistic thread is rambling and a bit drugged out but more real.
Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by:
reality1
()
Date: March 21, 2020 05:21PM
Given it is 3/21 and the number is 24,142 at this point and doubling about every 3 days the original formula is a fairly good representation.
Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by:
I'm k. I think I'm gay.
()
Date: March 21, 2020 07:34PM
I need to give a blow job today.
Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by:
Cp4jp
()
Date: March 22, 2020 08:55AM
Mathematics of coronavirus:
All Italians dead = a preferable thing
Many Chinese dead = a good thing
Most Iranians dead = a better thing
All the Boomers dead = the best thing
QED.
All Italians dead = a preferable thing
Many Chinese dead = a good thing
Most Iranians dead = a better thing
All the Boomers dead = the best thing
QED.
Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by:
Racist Willie
()
Date: March 22, 2020 09:26AM
Cp4jp Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mathematics of coronavirus:
>
> All Italians dead = a preferable thing
> Many Chinese dead = a good thing
> Most Iranians dead = a better thing
> All the Boomers dead = the best thing
>
> QED.
Damn, can’t we get this virus to attack niggers?
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mathematics of coronavirus:
>
> All Italians dead = a preferable thing
> Many Chinese dead = a good thing
> Most Iranians dead = a better thing
> All the Boomers dead = the best thing
>
> QED.
Damn, can’t we get this virus to attack niggers?
Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by:
Dumfrieskid
()
Date: March 22, 2020 09:47AM
Your math includes a fatal mistake. It assumes that once a person has the virus they always have it. This is not true. They recover and should be taken out of the "has a case" data set. The numbers become much lower when you do that.
Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by:
rfgber
()
Date: March 23, 2020 04:33AM
Dumfrieskid Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Your math includes a fatal mistake. It assumes
> that once a person has the virus they always have
> it. This is not true. They recover and should be
> taken out of the "has a case" data set. The
> numbers become much lower when you do that.
you'll never fix the equation
anyhow - they are looking to kill the deadly forms (solves itself if the patient dies) and to CURB the virus until the immune system can fight it off - which we think it should given an advantage (we think it does)
the math was bore out very early on and dismissed as not worth calculating
-------------------------------------------------------
> Your math includes a fatal mistake. It assumes
> that once a person has the virus they always have
> it. This is not true. They recover and should be
> taken out of the "has a case" data set. The
> numbers become much lower when you do that.
you'll never fix the equation
anyhow - they are looking to kill the deadly forms (solves itself if the patient dies) and to CURB the virus until the immune system can fight it off - which we think it should given an advantage (we think it does)
the math was bore out very early on and dismissed as not worth calculating
Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by:
dpcwk
()
Date: March 23, 2020 07:11AM
reality1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Given it is 3/21 and the number is 24,142 at this
> point and doubling about every 3 days the original
> formula is a fairly good representation.
And in a few weeks the entire universe will be infected. Trillions and and trillions of humans.
-------------------------------------------------------
> Given it is 3/21 and the number is 24,142 at this
> point and doubling about every 3 days the original
> formula is a fairly good representation.
And in a few weeks the entire universe will be infected. Trillions and and trillions of humans.
Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by:
Algebra 101
()
Date: March 24, 2020 08:03PM
Well well well.
Prediction 1 was pretty accurate.
Prediction was 54442 cases by March 25.
We are at 53443 cases with about 4 hours to go.
You just can't beat good old math. And yes, of course the exponential curve will flatten eventually. That goes without saying. The early part of the curve is well represented by this simple algebraic formula.
You may now proceed with the "retard" insults, my low functioning ffu friends!
Prediction 1 was pretty accurate.
Prediction was 54442 cases by March 25.
We are at 53443 cases with about 4 hours to go.
You just can't beat good old math. And yes, of course the exponential curve will flatten eventually. That goes without saying. The early part of the curve is well represented by this simple algebraic formula.
You may now proceed with the "retard" insults, my low functioning ffu friends!
Re: The math of Corona growth in the US
Posted by:
Archivist
()
Date: March 24, 2020 08:07PM
girly men out the woodwork Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 1. The curve is already flattening in Washington
> State, so you numbers are already wrong.
>
> 2. The mortality rate is falling fast, so even
> your incorrect numbers would mean about 35,000
> deaths in the US. About average for a severe flu
> season.
>
> You shouldn't post anymore. You're too retarded.
Screenshotted to make fun of you later.
Attachments:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 1. The curve is already flattening in Washington
> State, so you numbers are already wrong.
>
> 2. The mortality rate is falling fast, so even
> your incorrect numbers would mean about 35,000
> deaths in the US. About average for a severe flu
> season.
>
> You shouldn't post anymore. You're too retarded.
Screenshotted to make fun of you later.
Attachments: